Deciphering French Technique within the Indo-Pacific

From the fanfare-laden reopening of Notre-Dame to the Synthetic Intelligence Motion Summit held within the cavernous halls of the Grand Palais, to last-minute summits of European leaders unexpectedly convened within the gilded chambers of the Elysee, French diplomacy seems to have been in overdrive in current months. Emmanuel Macron, France’s hyper-energetic and peripatetic president, has been much more energetic than ordinary — tirelessly shuttling throughout a war-torn European continent and a widening Atlantic Ocean in a determined effort to shore up trans-Atlantic unity at a time of historic upheaval.

And but hundreds of miles away, on the opposite facet of the world, and for the primary time for the reason that Sixties, a French nuclear-powered provider strike group is on a mission to steam although the Indian Ocean and past the Malacca Strait, all the way in which into the Pacific Ocean. Because it ranges throughout these huge oceanic expanses, the provider strike group — which includes a nuclear assault submarine, a fleet tanker, frigates, and maritime patrol plane — has participated in operations and led workouts in among the most contested waters and maritime chokepoints on the earth.

Why now, and for what objective — particularly at a time when, to the informal international observer, France appears to have so many extra urgent geopolitical considerations nearer to dwelling? The reply to that straightforward query is twofold.

To start with, the Indo-Pacific can also be France’s dwelling. Its involvement is intangible with its personal sovereignty, the safety of 1.6 million French residents residing in seven oversea territories and a 9 million sq. kilometers of unique financial space. Their relationship with France dates again centuries. La Réunion has been French longer than Corsica, or than Hawaii has been American.

And second, France has a vested curiosity within the area’s safety as an entire. The choice to ship its most high-end naval asset such an important distance indicators France’s long-term dedication to stability within the area and that it’s right here to remain. To proceed to remain engaged and credibly function in a extra contested atmosphere, France ought to improve its potential to deploy seamlessly by partnerships, integration, and interoperability with militaries all throughout the area. The US is considered one of France’s most essential companions in that respect, particularly from an operational perspective, as proven by the provider strike group’s interactions with the U.S. Seventh Fleet based mostly in Yokosuka, Japan.

All of that is taking place in a brand new context: with voices inside the brand new U.S. administration supporting burden-shifting away from Europe somewhat than burden-sharing throughout theaters. The disaster theaters in Europe and the Indo-Pacific will nonetheless stay more and more linked, particularly given China’s help to Russia and North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine. Recognizing this, sure key democracies within the area, particularly Japan as a member of the G7, Australia and South Korea, have offered diplomatic, financial and army help to Ukraine. Opponents use comparable or coordinated methods of affect, intimidation and even coercion from the South China Sea and the Pacific, all the way in which into the Indian Ocean and Europe. France’s dedication to the area is important, given the shared challenges between the Indo-Pacific and Europe. The US and France have present synergies of their nationwide ambitions that may assist maximize their respective methods. France is right here to remain, however U.S. burden-shifting away from European safety will make collaborative benefits within the Indo-Pacific extra fragile as nicely.

The Indo-Pacific as a Continuum

Very similar to the US, France views the Indo-Pacific by the lens of sure key sub-regions — a few of which it has traditionally prioritized, a few of which it has maybe overly uncared for. And like the US, it’s now more and more contemplating this huge area as a extra built-in geopolitical ensemble. France is nicely acquainted with the tyranny of distances within the Indo-Pacific, on condition that its furthermost abroad territory is sort of 17,000 kilometers away from the mainland. Its seven abroad territories are strategically positioned. Within the western Indian Ocean, Mayotte, La Réunion, and the Scattered Islands are on the opening of the Mozambique Channel or close to it. Within the South Pacific, New Caledonia sits on the entry of the Coral Sea in direction of Australia, which made it a key help base for the Allies within the Pacific throughout World Warfare II. Wallis and Futuna is positioned between Fiji and Samoa. Lastly, French Polynesia is at an identical latitude to Hawaii in the course of the South Pacific between Australia and Latin America. This specificity gives a possibility to take a look at the area by the lens of a continuum from the Mediterranean by the Purple Sea, the openings of the Indian Ocean, all the way in which to key straits within the South China Sea in direction of the South Pacific.

As a “resident energy,” France must adapt its capabilities to stay a related safety contributor round its sovereign territories. Three army bases positioned in La Réunion, New Caledonia, and French Polynesia supply dependable help factors throughout deployments, however are usually not outfitted with key high-end  capabilities. La Réunion and Mayotte use two surveillance frigates with a helicopter every, one provide and help vessel, two patrol vessels (together with one polar patrol vessel) and two tactical transport plane. Within the Pacific Ocean, the French Armed Forces in New Caledonia and in French Polynesia function two surveillance frigates with one helicopter every, three patrol vessels, two multi-mission ships, 5 maritime surveillance plane, 4 tactical transport plane, and 5 helicopters. These are usually not high-end warfighting capabilities, however largely centered on coping with local weather change, unlawful fishing, unlawful migration, polluting actions, and exploitation of pure assets.

The 2024 to 2030 army programming legislation, which allocates 13 billion euros to the modernization of forces stationed in abroad territories, goals to shut among the present gaps, however not all. The at present stationed surveillance frigates are being changed round 2030 with new belongings fitted with anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Whereas there is no such thing as a particular plan for drones in French abroad territories, their growth and acquisition are a significant line of common effort. Given the doubtless enhance of the protection price range and manufacturing in Europe, an express plan to deploy surveillance drones to patrol the unique financial zones all the way in which to the Pacific can be obligatory. There are additional traces of efforts for France to stay a reputable actor to be able to improve deployments, to remain forward within the hybrid area, and to reinforce partnership methods based mostly on its post-AUKUS pivot.

Preserving Strategic Commons

With restricted means completely stationed, France’s potential to sign its dedication for the protection of contested strategic commons and contribution to maritime safety additionally depends on first, regularity in high-end deployments from metropolitan France, and second, by displaying a capability to react shortly to a disaster.

French army belongings deploy with regularity from the Mediterranean to the Pacific, signaling political will and dedication for the protection of strategic commons the place they’re probably the most fragile. Since 2021, the French Navy deploys at the very least twice a 12 months within the South China Sea and at the very least as soon as a 12 months within the Taiwan Strait. The 2021 port name of a nuclear assault submarine in Perth and Guam is just not meant to be a one-off. France additionally displays North Korean-related oil smuggling operations in violation of U.N. sanctions as a part of a U.S.-led initiative. Extra frequent deployments are testing the French Navy’s potential to function within the South China Sea and the Pacific. Each day, a 3rd of world commerce passes by the closely trafficked Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok Straits the place the provider strike group led a nine-nation maritime safety train in January known as La Pérouse. For the primary time, the provider strike group examined its potential to function with the US across the Luzon Strait within the Philippine Sea with the U.S. Seventh Fleet and a Japanese warship throughout train Pacific Steller. In 2024, the multi-mission frigate, Bretagne, participated in main multilateral workouts, together with the Valiant Protect train within the South China Sea round USS Theodore Roosevelt. On the similar time, French and Canadian ships transited by the South China Sea to check their potential to conduct exact deadly and multidomain operations.

Armed forces additionally often sign their potential to deploy air and sea belongings shortly in instances of disaster all the way in which to the South Pacific and East Asia. In 2023, air belongings, together with 10 Rafale fighter jets, reached Southeast Asia in 30 hours from France throughout the PEGASE mission for the primary time for the reason that train was established in 2018. Throughout its present deployment, the provider strike group acquired the aptitude to refuel diesel bunkers at sea for considered one of its frigates with a U.S. tanker. France additionally participated within the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command-led Rim of the Pacific train in 2024. Past the US, Europe has the chance to showcase its potential to combine different European belongings, corresponding to in PEGASE 2024,  which included French, German, Spanish, and British air belongings.

To boost its potential to challenge, extra may very well be executed for these strategically positioned territories to develop into actual regional hubs, particularly within the Indian Ocean the place most of France’s capabilities are. Whereas the hand-over of the Chagos Islands to the Republic of Mauritius has been paused by the UK amid  U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to workplace, it arguably makes La Réunion extra essential. Present infrastructure in La Réunion is barely enough to accommodate French naval port calls and small-scale multilateral workouts. France ought to seize the chance and put money into bigger infrastructures, which might accommodate for extra nationwide and multilateral deployments. La Réunion already serves as an anchor for army cooperation: the Indian Navy deployed P-8I maritime patrol plane at Réunion Island in 2020 and in 2022.In March 2024, an Australian P-8A plane made an inaugural go to to Réunion Island. On this context, France strengthened its ties with Quad companions, regardless of not being a member, and will discover extra alternatives for ad-hoc collaboration with India and Australia in La Réunion.

Contributing Past Maritime Safety

The weak infrastructure networks and fragility of island states to local weather change means we must always pay extra consideration to hybrid threats. The instance of Tonga in 2023 exhibits how the conjunction of those weaknesses can create a breakdown of sovereignty. Following a volcanic eruption, the island’s communications have been fully reduce off from the world, which France helped restore. China has reduce a number of cables intentionally round Taiwan in the previous couple of years, and carried out suspected sabotage actions within the Baltic Sea in 2023 and 2024. Given the geography of its abroad territories, France faces threats much like different island states of the area.

Island states are notably susceptible to a number of domains of coercion, together with within the cyber and extra-atmospheric areas, in addition to the digital and undersea areas. The 2022 Nationwide Strategic Evaluate emphasizes the reinforcement of France’s potential to guard its sovereignty in these domains, particularly in maritime safety, as France’s unique financial zones within the Indian and Pacific Oceans makes France’s the second largest on the earth with 9 million sq. kilometers. As such, one of many provider strike group’s essential missions in 2025 is to arrange the French Navy to reinforce its info superiority by embarked knowledge facilities. In line with the commander of the provider strike group, the present deployment must be setting new benchmarks to be utilized to the subsequent technology of navy methods. Through the deployment, the provider strike group will take a look at new sensors and massive knowledge instruments to extend situational consciousness.

France’s sovereignty in its abroad territories faces contestations that may be instrumentalized by opponents. In 2022, China proposed a cooperation deal on knowledge and cyber safety to Pacific Island nations. Whereas not finalized, it denotes Beijing’s willingness to dominate the immaterial house within the area. Chinese language diaspora and friendship teams have been energetic in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, together with to push favorable financial initiatives for crucial uncooked materials or fishing rights. French sovereignty is contested in New Caledonia — with the help of Azerbaijan — and may very well be additional contested in different areas, with Comoros laying claims on Mayotte with the help of China and Russia, or with Madagascar laying claims over Tromelin Island and the Scattered Islands.). New Caledonia, if unbiased, given its strategic location within the opening to Australia and the Pacific, might shortly develop into an essential asset for opponents.

The Affect of AUKUS on France’s Partnership Technique

The scrapped French Australian submarine deal would have anchored French forces within the Indo-Pacific in the long run due to implicit ensures. The deal would even have strengthened French-American protection cooperation, because the submarines included Lockheed Martin fight administration methods. As an alternative, within the two years that adopted the announcement of AUKUS, the sluggish mending of its relationship with Australia gave France more room to speculate politically in Japan and India, but in addition in pivotal smaller-sized littoral and island states everywhere in the area, some the place no different French president had been in many years or ever, together with Thailand, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, and Vanuatu.

The Indian Ocean is dwelling to France’s most essential associate within the area, India, rooted within the respect of every nation’s model of strategic autonomy, culminating in 2023 right into a joint imaginative and prescient for the Indo-Pacific. French-designed Rafale planes and Scorpene submarines are very important within the protection of India’s safety capabilities. The brand new roadmap goes past preliminary joint surveillance and maritime consciousness of the realm, opening up new domains of cooperation into industrial ecosystems, house, and power.

Nations must be outfitted to raised cope with dilemmas in defending their sovereignty. Lately, France upgraded its partnerships with Indonesia, which acquired 42 Rafale since 2022, and with the Philippines, which not too long ago acquired patrol boats from France. Japan and France signed a brand new partnership roadmap in 2023 to multiply joint train in direction of elevated interoperability. Each international locations have enhanced their workouts, conducting first land drill and joint amphibious workouts in Japan in 2021 and in New Caledonia in 2023. Partnerships with Japan and South Korea have main potential for development in already present maritime, cyber, and house cooperation. Solely not too long ago the partnership with Australia regularly returned to the protection area with the signature of a reciprocal entry settlement in 2023. The 2 international locations continued to cooperate on humanitarian help and catastrophe aid, particularly to Tonga in 2022 and Vanuatu in 2023 by the catastrophe aid cooperation FRANZ settlement.

Preserve Trans-Atlantic Ties Throughout Theaters in Europe and the Indo-Pacific

Within the context of restricted assets, states can endure or endeavor to decide on a hierarchy of priorities and partnerships. France, like many different powers with a worldwide outlook, has been grappling with the issue of neatly prioritizing international coverage. And within the present context, the temptation to forgo one theater for one more may very well be robust in Europe, much more in order the push is now coming from the US.

France wants to seek out its pursuits — and voice — amidst the American rebalancing towards the Indo-Pacific and disengagement from Europe. As an outdated European energy, France desires to keep away from historical past repeating itself and being caught between the agenda of two competing superpowers — similar to most resident international locations of the Indo-Pacific. Its narrative of “energy of balances” is the interpretation of this plea, not that it’ll embrace a type of multi-alignment. Three essential priorities are outlined as a consequence: strategic autonomy, European building, and multilateral engagement. These insurance policies are usually not designed to come back on the expense of relations with the US however search to deal with the dearth of predictability and uncertainties relating to future American engagement on the continent and past.

France and the US have held a singular annual defense-led Indo-Pacific dialogue since 2019, together with a  state-led Indo-Pacific dialogue since 2024. The protection dialogues enable each international locations to coordinate deployments within the Pacific but in addition to deconflict divergences. These dialogues have to proceed even when there’s burden-shifting given the spillover impact of crises with an growing integration between opponents throughout theaters. The 2025 provider strike group deployment enhances interconnection of communication and command methods between French and U.S. regional headquarters. It’s a large alternative to determine areas of development and present obstacles to the combination of France and the US within the framework of a high-intensity battle, work which ought to proceed, albeit in a brand new context.

France doesn’t have American capabilities within the Indo-Pacific or a few of its regional powers, however it’s a member of the U.N. Safety Council with prerogatives and sovereign missions everywhere in the area. Amongst European states, France holds a singular perspective of the Indo-Pacific that requires army experience and capabilities. Efforts engaged to help Ukraine has not led to decreased curiosity or shifting assets to Europe from the Indo-Pacific after the 2022 Nationwide Strategic Evaluate. France continues to keep up technique of motion that enables it to function in strategic depth, removed from Europe for its sovereign pursuits, but in addition as a result of the Indo-Pacific is essential within the context of the warfare in Ukraine. Europe must develop its personal response to the manifold challenges generated by intensified Sino-Russian cooperation and Russian-North Korean co-belligerence. An replace of its 2019 Indo-Pacific protection technique could also be obligatory. A few of these solutions could also be within the Indo-Pacific.

Léonie Allard is a visiting fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Europe Middle. Earlier than her present function, Allard labored for the Ministry of Armed Forces’ Directorate Normal for Worldwide Relations and Technique.

Picture: Mass Communication Specialist third Class Skyler Okerman by way of Wikimedia Commons