Over the course of the final 22 years, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey has fought and endured an important deal as a way to stay in energy. Court docket challenges, corruption investigations, shut elections, financial downturns, armed uprisings and tried coups have every examined his reign. And thru all of it, he has grown extra highly effective.
The occasions of the final month could show to be among the many most decisive moments of Erdoğan’s period. In the course of March, an Istanbul court docket ordered the arrest and imprisonment of town’s standard mayor, Ekrem Imamoğlu. A sequence of huge demonstrations adopted the court docket’s determination, resulting in an in depth crackdown on each protestors and the nation’s largest opposition celebration. With Imamoğlu’s removing from workplace, many assume that Erdoğan could run in opposition to a weaker opposition candidate in his pursuit of a 3rd presidential time period after 2028.
Nonetheless different occasions seem to favor Erdoğan’s plans for stronger, extra regionally highly effective Turkey. As demonstrators first took to the streets, information reviews circulated that Turkish troops would stay in Syria and help the federal government in Damascus in reconstituting its army. These revelations adopted rising indicators that Turkey’s biggest safety menace, the outlawed Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration, was on the threshold of disbanding. With the prospect of ending this 40-year insurgency inside attain, pro-government have rejoiced. “Turkey is working to handle this historic alternative it now has grasped,” one columnist declared. “It doesn’t achieve this with joyful drums and fifes. It governs with an expertise that’s distinctive to nice states.”
Erdoğan’s simultaneous crackdown on home dissent and assertive enlargement into post-war Syria signify high-stakes gambles meant to safe his regime’s longevity and regional energy. Nevertheless, these strikes danger destabilizing Turkey each internally — via rising unrest and democratic backsliding — and externally, via entanglement in unstable regional dynamics, together with potential battle with Israel.
Turkey’s Pottery Barn Downside
Turkey’s commentariat embraced the opening of 2025 with nice cheer. Weeks earlier, then-President Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus for exile in Moscow. The sight of insurgent troops rolling into Syria’s capital was greeted as a welcomed conclusion to Syria’s 15-year civil battle. For a lot of Turkish opinionmakers, the approaching peace introduced with it a number of potential advantages. An finish to the preventing probably meant that tens of millions of Syrian refugees residing in Turkey might quickly return house. Their departure, some hoped, would assist relieve the nation of huge variety of undesirable immigrants. No much less attractive have been the financial alternatives that appeared to accompany the battle’s conclusion. With U.N. officers estimating Syria’s reconstruction prices topping $400 billion, it appeared probably Turkish business and building pursuits would reap important beneficial properties from Assad’s fall.
Turkey’s first official gestures in direction of the brand new Syrian regime urged that one thing extra profound was within the offing. Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, went out of his method to obtain representatives from Ankara. Emblematic of his hospitality was al-Sharaa’s willingness to personally chauffeur his Turkish visitor in his non-public automobile. Many observers interpreted Al-Sharaa’s acts of deference as greater than mere kindness. Turkey had helped defend his insurgent stronghold in Idlib for a lot of the civil battle. When his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters launched into their last offensive in opposition to Assad’s forces in November 2024, Ankara-backed guerrillas within the Syrian Nationwide Military adopted go well with. On this regard, Turkish commentators agreed: The victory in Syria belonged to each Ankara and al-Sharaa.
Hayat Tahrir’s triumph, nevertheless, didn’t utterly settle accounts with Turkey. Different points remained. Chief amongst them was Ankara’s need to see Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria dropped at heel. In January, Turkey threatened to ship troops throughout the border if terrorist-linked Kurdish militias weren’t dissolved. Intense negotiations between al-Sharaa’s authorities and factions within the Syria’s northeast quickly adopted. Damascus signed an settlement in February with the most important Kurdish-dominated faction, the Syrian Democratic Forces, aimed amalgamating it into the common Syrian military. Ankara hailed this preliminary breakthrough as promising. Nevertheless, Turkish commentators have expressed fear that the group could drag its ft in implementing their facet of the accord. Erdoğan too has affirmed that Turkish persistence will not be infinite.
There are nonetheless different indicators of Turkey’s willingness to insert itself in Syria’s home safety. In February, reviews circulated that al-Sharaa and Erdoğan have been in search of a joint protection pact. Parts of this settlement, in accordance with Reuters, would “see Turkey set up new air bases in Syria, use Syrian airspace for army functions, and take a lead function in coaching troops in Syria’s new military.” Turkish pundits rejoiced at these revelations, resulting in additional hypothesis that the Turkish navy would take over Russia’s basing rights on the Syrian coast. “Turkey,” one outstanding protection commentator, Metin Yarar, declared, “is the one nation that may advise Syria.”
Turkey’s rising affect over Damascus has prompted blended reactions. Regardless of preliminary indications of an imminent American withdrawal from Syria, the Trump administration has but to drag troops from their bases contained in the nation. Washington’s noncommittal method in direction of an American presence within the nation seems to reflect a common “wait and see” method in direction of al-Sharaa’s authorities. Ankara has sought to hasten Washington’s exit with guarantees to take over anti-Islamic State efforts within the area, a step Turkey ensures to undertake in conjunction in Iraq, Jordan, and Syria. There may be little probability, nevertheless, that this coalition will undertake concrete steps within the close to future. With the complete implementation of an settlement between Damascus and Kurdish representatives nonetheless excellent, it’s attainable months could go earlier than Turkey and its companions see any actual motion.
None of those developments have laid Israeli issues to relaxation. With Israel nonetheless grappling with the fallout of the October 7 assaults, the Netanyahu authorities has remained steadfast in its competition that Turkey has offered important assist to Hamas. Israeli hostility appeared to take a brand new flip in January when the Knesset’s protection and finances committee issued a scathing report on Turkey’s affect in Syria. Among the many committee’s findings is the assertion that Israel “should be ready for battle” with Turkey over its assist for Sunni militants in Syria and its potential need “to revive the Ottoman Empire to its former glory.” Turkish sources have been extra demure in acknowledging Israeli hostility. Nonetheless, Turkish media commentators and senior officers have countered that Israel equally intends to undermine Turkish safety by establishing ties with Syria’s Kurdish militias. This perception has crystalized across the conspiracy principle that Tel Aviv intends to occupy and partition Syria by linking Kurdish-held areas with the Golan Heights. The belief of this “David’s Hall,” as it’s termed within the Turkish press, is believed to be part of a broader Israeli agenda to redraw the map of the Center East.
Current Israeli airstrikes in opposition to army installations in central Syria elevate the chance {that a} taking pictures battle between Israel and Turkey will not be idle discuss. Nor ought to anybody underestimate the regional instability such an encounter would generate. For Turkey, a pricey battle with Israel is just one hazard that lies forward in Syria. Current waves of sectarian violence within the nation have underscored the fragility of the peace the al-Sharaa authorities has solid. The sheer lack of cash, sources and experience obtainable to the Damascus authorities has made these communal hostilities worse. To this point, no state within the area, together with the rich Gulf monarchies, have adopted via on guarantees to assist al-Sharaa in rebuilding the nation. With the nation’s financial system nonetheless floundering, it seems simply as probably that a lot of Turkey’s Syrian diaspora won’t return house. All of those eventualities counsel that Ankara may discover itself battling what Colin Powell as soon as known as the Pottery Barn rule: To its detriment, Turkey could find yourself proudly owning a completely damaged scenario in Syria.
One Extra Encore?
In October 2024, Erdoğan’s governing associate, Devlet Bahçeli, carried out a easy act that took a lot of the nation unexpectedly. Whereas passing via the halls of Turkey’s Nationwide Meeting, he willingly provided his hand and greeted members of the Peoples’ Democratic Celebration. Such a gesture was beforehand unimaginable: Bahçeli is a die-hard Turkish ultranationalist and a bitter opponent of the Kurdish nationwide motion. The Peoples’ Democratic Celebration, an opposition celebration, mainly represents the pursuits of Kurdish civil rights motion. But in explaining his motion, Bahçeli expressed his need to foster “a brand new period” of peace inside the nation.
Occasions accelerated following Bahçeli’s handshake. In acknowledging his coalition associate’s goodwill, Erdoğan publicly voiced his hope {that a} “Turkey with out terror” was simply on the horizon. This aspiration took on larger authenticity when the federal government allowed a sequence of official conferences between representatives of the Peoples’ Democratic Celebration and the imprisoned founder and chief of the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration, Abdullah Öcalan. Media protection of those gatherings led to open hypothesis that Öcalan was imminently planning to difficulty a decree ordering the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration to disband. In late February, he fulfilled this expectation, issuing a page-and-a-half written assertion outlining his need for his fighters to put down their arms. Peoples’ Democratic Celebration members of parliament who helped convey this decree heartily declared {that a} potential breakthrough within the nation’s 40-year wrestle was nearing an finish. “The primary stage has been efficiently accomplished,” one celebration official intoned. “The primary stage is greater than 50 % of this job.”
A timeline leaked to a pro-government newspaper supplies some inkling of how Erdoğan’s administration perceives the implications of Öcalan’s historic assertion. After a “wait-and-see” interval lasting a number of months, a “democratization” course of would proceed inside Turkey’s Grand Nationwide Meeting. Among the many goals of this course of, in accordance with sources, can be the reformation of the nation’s structure. As of but, there isn’t a official phrase as to exactly what kind of constitutional modifications the federal government has in thoughts. Analysts speculate that one probably merchandise to be broached is the restriction stopping Erdoğan from operating for president in 2028. Shortly after his public embrace of Peoples’ Democratic Celebration representatives, Devlet Bahçeli publicly advocated a constitutional modification permitting Erdoğan the choice to face once more for election in three years’ time. To make sure passage of such an modification, Erdoğan’s coalition requires the assist of one of many meeting’s principal opposition events. Giving concessions to the Peoples’ Democratic Celebration, some commentators have reasoned, could safe Erdoğan the votes he so desperately wants.
These constructive developments come amid an more and more strident state marketing campaign focusing on different opponents of Erdoğan’s authorities. The chief sufferer of this surging crackdown is Turkey’s largest opposition celebration, the Republican Peoples’ Celebration. Starting final 12 months, state authorities eliminated a number of domestically elected Republican Peoples’ Celebration leaders from workplace and positioned government-appointed trustees of their place. The arrest and removing of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu has taken this marketing campaign one step additional. Public polling carried out earlier than and after his arrest point out that he’s each extra standard than Erdoğan and extra more likely to win in a head-to-head matchup for the presidency in 2028. What Erdoğan could not have counted on is the general public fury such a stroke has incurred. One current survey discovered that 79 % of Turks supported the protests (with most conditioning their approval as long as the demonstrations stay peaceable). With the numbers of their favor, Republican Peoples’ Celebration leaders present no signal of letting up. “It’s proper to defend democracy in opposition to these [acts],” celebration chair Özgür Özel not too long ago declared earlier than a crowd over one million protestors. “And the place for this protection is the streets.”
Developments on different fronts add additional issues for Erdoğan. Regardless of some preliminary hesitation, Peoples’ Democratic Celebration leaders have voiced assist for the protests and have referred to as for Imamoğlu’s launch. Buoyed by the rising measurement of demonstrations, Republican Peoples’ Celebration chairman Özel has now referred to as for early elections, a transfer which will additional upend any plan to implement revisions to the structure. Added to those dates are issues that the dissolution of the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration is probably not so sure. Neither the Syrian Democratic Forces nor different Kurdish factions have official acknowledged Öcalan’s requires dissolution. One outstanding Syrian Kurdish chief has conditioned his participation within the peace course of upon Öcalan’s launch and the tip of the state’s crackdown on elected opposition officers. Öcalan, he contended, “has opened the door to democratic politics; the remaining will depend on the steps the Turkish state will take.”
Turkey’s Nice Unknown
There are different indications that every one is probably not effectively inside Erdoğan’s palace. Efforts to stem the lira’s deflating worth has introduced the nation’s technocratic treasury minister, Mehmet Şimşek, additional into the general public eye. Throughout one rally, Republican Peoples’ Celebration chair Özgür Özel mused that the federal government was pressuring the treasury minister to not resign, an accusation that elicited ferocious denials from each Şimşek and Erdoğan’s minister of communication. An opposition press rumor held that Bahçeli had not too long ago been intubated on account of poor well being, a cost that briefly landed one journalist in police custody.
Each of those tales, no matter their veracity, are emblematic of the federal government’s defensive posture. Regardless of massive numbers of protestors turning out throughout the nation, the state’s media watchdog issued blanket bans on stay protection of the marches. As a consequence, main information retailers have gone to excessive lengths to keep away from dialogue of the dimensions and natural fury of the crowds. CNN’s Turkish affiliate, for instance, aired a chat present on Israeli-Turkish tensions relatively than broadcast photographs of an opposition rally that quantity within the a whole bunch of 1000’s. When movie surfaced of a protestor dressed as Pikachu, the outlet hosted a roundtable dialogue as as to if the looks of the Pokémon costumed dissident was proof of a conspiracy focusing on the Turkish state. One authorities suppose tank has gone so far as to accuse the opposition of being enemies of democracy.
Previous precedent tells us to not learn an excessive amount of into these adverse indicators. At a number of junctures throughout his now two-decade lengthy reign, Erdoğan has gambled or defied the percentages and emerged stronger for it. There may be additionally purpose to be hesitant in saying that Turkey has reached a proverbial crossroads (particularly since quite a few analysts have employed this cliché over time). Current occasions counsel, nevertheless, that we needs to be open to the chance that Turkey could have arrived at some form of second of reckoning.
Erdoğan has wagered an important deal within the hopes of successful on two completely different fronts. Establishing a agency foothold in Syria whereas neutralizing the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration probably can have a dramatic impact upon Turkey’s regional affect. With Tehran and Moscow nonetheless reeling from al-Asaad’s overthrow, Ankara stands poised to train larger authority over the Center East. Success in Syria additionally could additional whet Turkey’s urge for food for adventurism. Though relations between Greece and Turkey have warmed considerably within the final 12 months, each nations stay far aside on a variety of hotly contested points. Demobilizing the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration and resolving its issues with Kurdish militants in Syria could incentivize Erdoğan to renew his aggressive habits in direction of Athens. Crushing the opposition and securing a future time period will undoubtedly guarantee Erdoğan’s home dominance. Attaining this objective probably will imply that Turkey will totally shift from a “aggressive authoritarian state” to a totally autocratic one. Ought to that be the case, it’s probably we are going to see a groomed successor emerge to hold on Erdoğan’s type of rule effectively into the long run.
Erdoğan could imagine that the bets he’s making at house and overseas are well worth the rewards. Arising brief, in any regard, could inflict additional instability on Turkey. The highway to success in Syria is doubtlessly fraught with hazard. Ought to al-Sharaa’s authorities stumble or fall, Turkey once more could also be saddled with an unstable neighbor and a tidal wave of latest refugees in want of care. Efficiently insisting upon a everlasting army presence in Syria can also spur a battle in opposition to Israel. Not like Ankara’s current conflicts in Libya, Syria, or Armenia, the Turkish armed forces could wrestle in opposition to a much more succesful opponent.
At house, persevering with demonstrations and opposition crackdowns could each whittle away at a possible Kurdish peace accord, thus quashing Erdoğan’s need for a 3rd presidential time period. Ought to this home agenda go south, Erdoğan and his administration could face a tough selection between harsher types of oppression or backing down. No matter selection he makes, Turkish politics will probably develop extra unstable. Lest one overlook, any considered one of these eventualities would weigh closely on Turkey’s long-reeling financial system. In mild of the Trump administration’s tariff coverage and the rising prospects of a world recession, a extreme financial downturn will not be exterior the realm of prospects for Turkey.
Briefly, Erdoğan’s twin efforts to strengthen his maintain on energy, whereas boosting Turkey’s affect within the Center East, could weaken him additional and precipitate way more extreme crises. What kind of dimensions such a disaster would assume is tough to know. At this stage, given world circumstances, it appears simpler to think about Turkey rising weaker, or at the least extra unpredictable, than not.
Ryan Gingeras is a professor within the Division of Nationwide Safety Affairs on the Naval Postgraduate Faculty and is an skilled on Turkish, Balkan, and Center East historical past. He’s the writer of seven books, together with the forthcoming Mafia: A International Historical past (due out with Simon & Schuster in January 2026). His Sorrowful Shores: Violence, Ethnicity, and the Finish of the Ottoman Empire acquired short-list distinctions for the Rothschild Ebook Prize in Nationalism and Ethnic Research and the British-Kuwait Friendship Society Ebook Prize. The views expressed right here should not these of the Naval Postgraduate Faculty, the U.S. Navy, the Division of Protection, or any half of the U.S. authorities.
Picture: The Kremlin by way of Wikimedia Commons
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