“Every thing earlier than the phrase ‘however’ is horse s–.” — Jon Snow, Sport of Thrones.
Joe Scarborough gave an ideal illustration of Snow’s dictum on immediately’s Morning Joe:
“We’re actually not hoping that issues [in Venezuela] unravel, however that is what latest historical past has taught us.”
The success of the operation that resulted within the extraction of Maduro and his spouse with out the lack of a single life among the many 1000’s of US navy members concerned has been a bitter capsule for Scarborough and the remainder of the liberal media to swallow.
Scarborough acknowledged that success as the start of his assertion: “The navy operation was executed, from each report I’ve seen, flawlessly.” The primary “however” arrived instantly thereafter: “however let’s discuss what we have realized over the previous 20 years and the issues that I believe most Individuals share with me.”
Given the preliminary success, you simply know that Scarborough and the remainder of the liberal media are all of the extra hoping and praying, ready to pounce on the slightest indication that issues are usually not going based on plan.
And that is how Scarborough’s second, telling, “however” popped up:
“There’s little or no a president can do if you attempt to occupy a overseas nation as issues unravel. It is actually not what we’re hoping for right here, however it’s what historical past, latest historical past, has taught us over the previous 20 years.”
Not what you are hoping, Joe. Riight.
Scarborough primarily based his argument on analogizing the Venezuelan operation to the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, which each ended badly. However there are good causes to reject these analogies. Because the spokesman for Venezuela’s opposition has famous:
- Venezuela has legit democratic management—twice over. María Corina Machado was elected because the chief of the democratic motion with 93% of the votes within the opposition primaries, and Edmundo González Urrutia was elected president with 70% of the votes,. This double democratic legitimacy doesn’t exist within the aforementioned nations.
- Venezuela has a powerful democratic legacy. In the course of the second half of the twentieth century, Venezuela was one of the crucial affluent and secure democracies in Latin America. This historic background contrasts sharply with nations comparable to Libya, Somalia, or Afghanistan, which lacked consolidated democratic traditions earlier than their crises.
- Venezuela doesn’t face deep spiritual or ethnic divisions. Not like Iraq, the place sectarian and ethnic conflicts have performed a central position in political instability, Venezuela doesn’t undergo from deep-rooted spiritual or ethnic clashes that might fracture society throughout a transition course of. This considerably reduces the danger of inner battle and state fragmentation.
There’s a persuasive argument that, as a substitute of Afghanistan and Iraq, the US operations in Grenada and Panama are the extra apt analogies to the Venezuela operation.
The 1983 invasion of Grenada ordered by President Reagan overthrew the Marxist navy junta that had seized energy. Only one 12 months later, Grenada held a aggressive election, and since that point, Grenada has remained a secure and fairly affluent democracy.
Much more analogous was the US operation in Panama on the finish of 1989, ordered by President George H.W. Bush. Very like the scenario in Venezuela, the operation was aimed on the seize and arrest of Manuel Noriega, the navy dictator and a drug kingpin who reworked Panama right into a hub for cocaine trafficking. He was captured and placed on trial in Miami, convicted of a number of drug-related offenses, and served an extended jail time period. He was ultimately extradited to Panama and sentenced to a number of 20-year sentences for the homicide of political opponents. He remained a prisoner on the time of his loss of life in 2017 on the age of 83. The parallel to the seize of Maduro to face a number of drug-trafficking costs within the US is hanging.
After Noriega was deposed, Panama established a constitutional democracy and has since maintained secure democratic establishments. And Panama has a flourishing economic system, with per capita revenue corresponding to that of some Jap European nations.
No analogies are excellent. And there are sure to be challenges and setbacks alongside the way in which in Venezuela. Success just isn’t assured. However Scarborough’s “buts,” and the wishin’ and hopin’ they characterize for American failure in Venezuela, say rather more about Scarborough’s partisanship than they do concerning the actuality of the scenario.
Here is the transcript.
MS NOW
Morning Joe
1/5/26
6:06 am ETJOE SCARBOROUGH: The navy operation was executed, from each report I’ve seen, flawlessly, however let’s, let’s discuss what we have realized over the previous 20 years and the issues that I believe most Individuals share with me. Not that Maduro’s been taken out, however what occurs subsequent?
DAVID IGNATIUS: In order that what-next drawback is the half that haunts anyone who was current, as I used to be, as US troops rolled into Baghdad in 2003. You possibly can hear in President Trump’s voice final night time as he spoke on Air Power One the exhilaration that presidents really feel after they use navy energy efficiently. Simply, there was a lion’s roar as he talked about, you recognize, be careful, Colombia. It is a sick chief. They’re subsequent. Be careful, Mexico. Mexico’s run by cartels. Cuba’s about to disintegrate. This was a president who was simply feeling what navy energy can do.
And the issue is, you do not look over the following hill to all the issues you are going to encounter. It was inside every week of that arrival in Baghdad that the U.S. started battling the fact. Who’s going to manipulate this nation now tha Saddam Hussein has been deposed, and you’ve got all of the totally different factions competing for affect.
It is apparent that the technique, higher outlined, actually, by Marco Rubio, the Washington Put up, cleverly, is looking the viceroy of Venezuela, that his strategy is is to depart President Delcy Rodriguez in place, to attempt to work with the navy moderately than hearth it wholesale, the way in which it was completed in Baghdad. And hope that by coerced cooperation, the Venezuelans will preserve ample order that this means of U.S., I wish to say, reappropriation of Venezuelan oil can happen and the nation will likely be modernized.
However, boy, I am unable to think about, Joe, a extra slippery slope forward than what they’re describing as the method for placing this nation again collectively. It’s a mess. Trump is true in saying that. However I have not heard something but that tells me how they’ll rework the mess right into a viable, secure nation. Nothing.
SCARBOROUGH: Once more, we, we glance again and see what occurred with Iraq, and even Afghanistan, which for some time individuals have been saying, effectively, that was battle. Nicely, no, no. Afghanistan and Iraq each resulted in tragedy.
Jon Meacham, I, I simply maintain going again to the early days, as David Ignatius talks about exhilaration, the early days of, of Iraq after the March invasion. We had, you recognize, generals fist bumping me, saying, are you able to imagine how nice issues are going? Retired generals. Are you able to imagine how nice issues are going over there? I had individuals within the media saying Bush goes to be president endlessly, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
I even keep in mind Jon Stewart, who simply unmercifully grilled George W. Bush. At one level, when issues have been going so effectively in Iraq in these first few months, he threw his palms up and stated, I suppose my kids are going to be going to center colleges named after George W. Bush.
In fact, that did not occur. Issues turned south badly, and there’s little or no a president can do if you attempt to occupy a overseas nation as issues unravel. It is actually not what we’re hoping for right here, however It’s what historical past, latest historical past, has taught us over the previous 20 years.
