The Washington Post Editorial Board couldn’t have timed its faux-fussbudgeting over how the Trump tariffs had been supposedly juicing Valentine’s Day inflation extra completely (sarcasm). Information was simply launched that inflation eased in January.
The Submit blurted out at 5:45 am February 13, “What do dangerous breath, wilted flowers and protectionism have in frequent? They could spoil Valentine’s Day.”
“Unhealthy breath” is correct, as a result of our faces contorted as soon as we learn the halitosis-infected headline following a Bureau of Labor Statistics report launched slightly below 3 hours later displaying that client costs elevated 2.4 p.c, which shattered naysayers’ expectations and defied “fears of a tariff-induced hike in total prices,” as ABC Information summarized. The Submit would even launch a narrative on the BLS knowledge later admitting it was a “promising signal for” the “financial system.”
Sheesh, you’d suppose The Submit editorial board may have waited a minimum of till after the BLS report knowledge was launched earlier than it will make itself look silly with this headline, “The love tax: Valentine’s Day prices extra this 12 months due to tariffs.”
And what was the editorial board’s proof that tariffs had been definitively inflicting Valentine’s Day worth hikes (flowers, goodies, and so forth)? Nicely not a lot: “Bins of goodies from outdoors america value an additional 8 p.c due to 2025 tariff will increase, in accordance with the Cato Institute’s Scott Lincicome.” Nowhere did The Submit draw a transparent straight line — both utilizing Lincicome’s evaluation or its personal — to obviously break previous the wall of the correlation doesn’t equal causation fallacy. The Board simply assumed the linkages prima facie.
Wellington-Altus Chief Market Strategist James E. Thorne underscored February 13 in an X publish that the most recent inflation knowledge exhibits costs are being “overwhelmingly” pushed by shelter, however “[t]right here continues to be no proof of any tariff-related inflationary stress.” Economist Daniel Lacalle took the info as a victory lap for his August 2025 evaluation showcasing why “Tariffs don’t trigger inflation.” In that report, Lacalle broke down 5 core the explanation why tariffs usually are not inflationary:
- Prices don’t dictate closing costs; it’s the different approach round, because the Menger imputation precept exhibits.
- Tariffs don’t suppose extra items of forex within the system nor larger financial velocity. Moreover, they don’t affect combination costs.
- Provide chains usually are not a binary producer-buyer chain. They’re exceedingly advanced, and lots of of these rivets and hyperlinks take up prices.
- Most exporter nations have overcapacity and dealing capital challenges and thus want to maintain costs engaging to promote to the US, the biggest and richest market.
- Tariffs don’t enhance combination costs.
For the file.
At this time’s CPI launch as soon as once more underscores that inflation stays overwhelmingly pushed by shelter — a lagging and statistically distorted part. There may be nonetheless no proof of any tariff-related inflationary stress. An goal studying of the info would… pic.twitter.com/2dCNxHjkeX
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) February 13, 2026
However The Submit acted prefer it someway notched a gotcha! in opposition to President Donald Trump for supposedly ruining the vibe of Valentine’s Day romance:
Valentine’s Day, in fact, isn’t the one day individuals really feel tariffs. If on a regular basis life goes to be costlier, People want a greater purpose than they’ve been given to this point.”
Nicely, as the most recent BLS inflation knowledge implies, tariffs usually are not the de facto “purpose” for why life is costlier. For that, it’s maybe finest to have a look at the out-of-control spending insurance policies below Trump’s predecessor that induced total costs to skyrocket over 20 p.c within the first place.
