Countering Infinite Warfare and its Networks – The Cipher Temporary

America isn’t at peace. As I argued in Half I, the USA is already in a steady, long-term battle with decided adversaries who’re waging warfare with out crossing the edge into open battle. Infinite Warfare is a framework for understanding how these adversaries pursue an everlasting strategy to erode and supplant U.S. energy, affect, and world management over time.

Infinite Warfare isn’t merely one other label for the grey zone or cognitive warfare. Each are essential parts and benefit their very own approaches, however Infinite Warfare describes the adversary’s persistent, long-term technique, not simply the weather that allow it.

Given this working atmosphere, that is about way over terminology. It’s about how we perceive battle, how we obtain deterrence, how we shield determination autonomy, how we retain leverage, and, most significantly, how we disrupt the networks that gas Infinite Warfare.

What are the important subsequent steps?

Infinite Warfare Requires a Completely different Strategic Mindset

Militaries are sometimes criticized for planning to combat the final warfare. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was undermined by Russia’s underestimation of how a lot warfare had developed since Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. America doubtlessly faces that very same threat at this time. It’s important that we’re ready to combat and win the subsequent standard warfare, however there are dangers in a concentrate on solely that technique. We should additionally put together to combat and win—with the suitable devices of nationwide energy—the Infinite Warfare being waged on the USA by its adversaries; warfare that comes with grey zone exercise, cognitive warfare, weaponized negotiations, proxies and surrogates, and different subversive networks.

This variation in strategic mindset isn’t due to an absence of functionality. America has appreciable expertise, sources, and capabilities on this area. Infinite Warfare is conceptually completely different from standard warfare—significantly given the ambiguous nature of gray-zone exercise and cognitive warfare—and due to this fact calls for a unique strategy.

But as a result of it’s a steady state of battle, it additionally requires the identical stage of nationwide management and imaginative and prescient, group, important pondering, sense of urgency, and collaboration with allies that we apply to standard battle. That is achievable however will take some effort. It might require a senior White Home official, corresponding to a Deputy Nationwide Safety Advisor for Strategic Competitors, to combine interagency motion and coordinate a sustained nationwide response to this risk.

That Deputy Nationwide Safety Advisor wouldn’t exchange present tasks of Departments and Businesses. The function can be to make sure that strategic deterrence within the grey zone, cognitive benefit, battle negotiations when adversaries search to increase somewhat than resolve battle, and community disruptions are built-in right into a coherent and sustained nationwide response to the specter of Infinite Warfare in opposition to the USA.

Strategic Deterrence within the Grey Zone

Strategic deterrence is one part of a broader strategy to countering Infinite Warfare. Grey zone exercise is a robust enabler of Infinite Warfare as a result of it offers our adversaries an area to undermine the USA whereas avoiding armed battle.

Our adversaries have calculated that there are extra good points than dangers within the grey zone and that any dangers they do face are acceptable. Actions that search to counter or defend in opposition to grey zone exercise however that don’t impose significant prices or create credible deterrence might merely reward grey zone exercise.

An efficient technique for reaching strategic deterrence within the grey zone rests on deliberate preparation, clear communication, a nationwide strategy, and the resolve to alter the danger calculus of our adversaries.

Deliberate preparation means gathering and analyzing data on adversary grey zone traits, capabilities, and intent earlier than they act; routinely coordinating on the nationwide stage so roles, tasks, and determination paths are clear; and reorienting establishments and the interagency to take care of efficient balanced functionality in each standard and grey domains.

We additionally should talk clearly domestically, to our allies, and significantly to our adversaries. A easy however clear message for our adversaries: “We are going to see what you’re doing, we are going to publicly attribute it to you, and we are going to impose prices that exceed your good points.”

This message is credible solely whether it is backed by motion over time. America should convincingly reveal its resolve to proactively and persistently make use of nationwide capabilities to alter the danger calculus and habits of our adversaries.

This vary of nationwide capabilities contains coordinated diplomatic and allied motion, financial sanctions and restrictions, cyber operations, authorized and monetary disruption, public attribution, denying entry to important applied sciences, cognitive measures, army posture and companion capability-building and—when obligatory—kinetic responses. Current examples illustrate that imposing prices is feasible.

In 2021, the USA publicly attributed the SolarWinds supply-chain compromise to Russia, expelled Russian Intelligence Officers, and imposed broad monetary penalties beneath the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act.

In early 2025, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Sichuan Juxinhe Community Expertise Firm and related people for his or her function in Salt Storm for assaults on community infrastructure of a number of main U.S. telecommunication and web service suppliers.

These have been hard-earned wins for U.S. Departments and Businesses concerned, however Russia and China seem to have absorbed the prices and continued their operations. Attaining strategic deterrence implies that actions like these should change into the norm, not the exception.

The objective of strategic deterrence within the grey zone is to form adversary decision-making earlier than motion is taken. It means proactively shaping the atmosphere so adversaries hesitate earlier than they act—a important step in disrupting the cycle of Infinite Warfare.

Gaining a Cognitive Benefit

Countering the impacts of cognitive warfare is important to countering Infinite Warfare. My colleague, Austin Department, and I argued in The Cipher Temporary that it was attainable—and obligatory—for the U.S. to grab a Twenty first-century cognitive benefit.

That argument is much more pressing at this time given the central function of cognitive warfare in our adversaries’ methods of Infinite Warfare. Cognitive Safety, at its core, is the safety of human cognition and determination autonomy—our particular person and collective capability to precisely understand world occasions, to belief the information we have now and the data we obtain, and to make assured, impartial choices free from exterior manipulation, affect, or coercion.

Cognitive Safety can be about offense—outthinking, outpacing, and outmaneuvering our adversaries within the cognitive area.

Our adversaries ought to perceive that their leaders, establishments, networks, proxies—and decision-making—are weak to cognitive stress and affect. The objective is to pressure them—not the USA—to confront the uncertainties and dangers of cognitive warfare and to weaken their capability to wage Infinite Warfare.

There are some constructive steps on the nationwide stage.

We now have a first-ever NSC Cognitive Benefit Director, and the FY26 NDAA directs the Secretary of Protection to formally outline cognitive warfare for the Division. The Division’s Strategic Capabilities Workplace lately launched a Cognitive Warfare Challenge to advance the army’s cognitive warfare capabilities. There may be clearly alternative right here.

But, these early steps stay fragmented. In distinction, China’s United Entrance Work Division, Russia’s Lively Measures networks, and Iran’s various community of surrogates replicate centralized nationwide path and a long-term horizon as parts of a nationwide technique.

On this important course of, America’s strategy needs to be equally well-coordinated and strategic. It’s important that these new efforts keep away from bureaucratic hurdles, over-prescription which will stifle innovation, and creating silos. Our adversaries won’t look ahead to us to catch up.

Our nationwide narrative—America’s Story—additionally performs an essential function. As Department and I argued within the Cipher Temporary, our nationwide narrative is each sword and defend. It tasks energy, affect, and advances our pursuits. It tells the story of our values, historical past, aspirations, and examine of the world. It helps confidence in our actions, our establishments, and our world commitments.

Importantly, America’s Story counters adversary narratives and actions that search to undermine America at residence and overseas. It might probably function a robust antidote to adversary campaigns that use cognitive warfare to maintain extended battle. America’s Story was constructed at a time when a lot of the world noticed America as liberator, peacemaker, builder, world diplomat, and above all, a robust image of sacrifice, freedom, and self-determination. The lengthy arc of America’s Story is its power.

America can not let this nationwide narrative get misplaced in episodic political turbulence—its function in countering our adversaries is simply too important.

Countering Weaponized Negotiations

Within the period of Infinite Warfare, adversaries usually use negotiations as a continuation of battle by different means—not as devices of decision. Negotiations can play an outsized function in Infinite Warfare though they solely happen periodically. The central problem is distinguishing when talks intention to legitimately resolve a battle versus when they’re designed to form its subsequent part.

At this time, drawing classes immediately from Russia’s habits—from Georgia to Ukraine—and from Iran, a number of rules emerge that may strengthen our negotiating posture when going through adversaries that follow weaponized negotiations.

These key rules embody:

No upfront concessions. Make no upfront concessions to get an adversary to the negotiating desk. Such actions erode diplomatic, financial, and army leverage and may form all the negotiations on unfavorable phrases.

Set up clear overarching goals and non-negotiable redlines early. This preserves determination autonomy, offers a framework for decision-making, and prevents adversaries from reshaping goals to their benefit.

Proactively counter narratives. Throughout negotiations over Ukraine, Russia repeatedly pushed narratives, corresponding to “Ukraine can by no means win” and “territory concessions are inevitable,” to form Western perceptions of what constituted a practical consequence. Anticipating and countering false narratives ensures negotiations will not be manipulated.

Concessions have to be conditions-based. Any concessions given throughout negotiations have to be based mostly on measurable, verifiable actions with automated snap-back mechanisms if commitments are violated.

Be keen to stroll away. The need for any settlement ought to by no means outweigh core nationwide safety pursuits. Suspending or ending talks is best than enabling or accepting a settlement that resets the battle in an adversary’s favor.

Chester Karrass put it plainly, in life you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate. It is a highly effective counter to American assumptions that uncooked energy or battlefield success will carry the day on the negotiating desk.

Countering Infinite Warfare Networks

These measures—deterrence, cognitive benefit, and managing weaponized negotiations—vastly enhance America’s posture, however they don’t by themselves disrupt Infinite Warfare networks.

The last word objective is systematically confronting the adversary networks that pose an everlasting risk to the U.S. These networks fall into two broad classes: state institutional buildings and extra ambiguous buildings that blur the road between state and non-state exercise.

Institutional networks embody army organizations, intelligence companies, occasion organizations, proxy buildings, and state-directed organizations corresponding to IRGC-QF, MSS, GRU, and FSB, in addition to the specialised models liable for assassinations and sabotage, affect operations, and cyber-attacks as a couple of examples.

Ambiguous networks embody ghost fleets, shell and entrance corporations, prison organizations, illicit monetary methods, logistics methods affect networks, cyber hacktivists, proxy militias, smuggling organizations, and different comparable entities.

These networks will not be summary. Iran, Russia, and China make use of completely different approaches to Infinite Warfare, however every illustrates how adversaries develop and make use of each institutional and ambiguous networks to realize persistent strategic goals over a protracted timeframe. Simply as a couple of examples:

Iran’s community of proxies and surrogates, constructed over many years, permits Iran to venture energy, coerce and intimidate its neighbors, and get inside the choice area of its adversaries at comparatively low value. The IRGC is an enabler of Iran’s distributed networks with world attain.

Russia’s networks conduct cognitive warfare in opposition to the U.S. and the West and conduct sabotage, assassinations, and political coercion throughout Europe. Russia’s “ghost fleets” have allowed it to generate billions in income regardless of Western sanctions.

China’s Cyber networks probe and penetrate U.S. important infrastructure to maintain entry, acquire data, and supply a disruption functionality throughout a disaster. Its networks allow refined affect operations contained in the U.S. and the switch of important applied sciences that immediately improve its army capabilities.

Shared and overlapping networks in grey and ambiguous areas play a important function. Ghost fleets, entrance corporations, terror networks, illicit monetary organizations, and prison enterprises enable adversaries to bypass sanctions, maintain operations, and scale back worldwide stress.

A few of these networks are seen and attributable, others are deliberately obscured and decentralized to complicate attribution and defy sovereignty, worldwide legislation, and nationwide legal guidelines, together with these of the U.S. We must always anticipate our adversaries to fiercely shield these resilient, adaptive, and self-recovering networks they’ve rigorously developed over time, usually over many years, to achieve and maintain a strategic benefit.

The important query is how the U.S. can systematically scale back the effectiveness of those networks.

To paraphrase H.L. Mencken, for each complicated downside there’s a solution that’s clear, easy, and improper. That’s the dilemma going through the U.S. now. Overly simplistic approaches or single options that don’t consider the complexities of Infinite Warfare and the dedication of our adversaries to that strategy will devour time and sources however in the end fail.

Countering Infinite Warfare requires a sustained, network-centric technique using the devices of nationwide energy—diplomatic, army, financial, technological, informational, cognitive, and kinetic—somewhat than a collection of impartial actions. This technique consists of three mutually reinforcing strains of effort constructed on one foundational precept.

First, establish and prioritize the networks that pose the best long-term risk to the USA. There are not any official estimates of this ecosystem of networks—and what constitutes a community has not been clearly outlined—however Iran, Russia, and China, collectively direct or allow a really giant quantity institutional, industrial, prison, cyber, intelligence, affect, and proxy networks worldwide.

Second, maintain campaigns to sunlight, degrade, disrupt, and impose prices on institutional networks that conduct and oversee assaults on the USA and our allies. It’s unlikely that the U.S. can dismantle overseas institutional networks, however these networks could be degraded, constrained, and made expensive and fewer efficient.

Third, dismantle, disrupt, and forestall the regeneration of ambiguous networks by severing the monetary, logistical, technological, and organizational methods that help them. This isn’t a one-time exercise. Ambiguous networks are extra weak, however they’re usually adaptive and may regenerate or get replaced.

Cognitive Safety and Cyber Defenses have a mixed important function to play. None of those efforts will succeed until Americans, enterprise leaders, army commanders, and coverage makers are much less weak to affect, manipulation, and coercion—preserving America’s determination autonomy—and until governments, establishments, organizations, and demanding infrastructure are much less weak to technological exploitation and disruption.

Abstract

The ideas on this paper are troublesome to neatly categorize as a result of they describe a type of warfare that isn’t absolutely outlined. As standard warfare evolves, so do the extra nuanced points of warfare that happen beneath and above the edge of battle and within the ambiguous area between peace and warfare. I provide 4 takeaways.

First, Infinite Warfare is a definite adversary technique already underway by China, Russia, and Iran and must be handled as a present strategic risk—not only a future one.

Second, countless Warfare is sustained by refined and interconnected networks that should change into a main goal for U.S. and allied efforts.

Third, countering Infinite Warfare requires a proactive, persistent, and network-centric strategy backed by national-level management, a brand new framework for strategic planning, a way of urgency, and coordinated interagency motion. Is ittime to think about a senior White Home official, corresponding to a Deputy Nationwide Safety Advisor for Strategic Competitors, to combine interagency motion and coordinate a sustained nationwide response to this risk?

Fourth, strategic deterrence within the grey zone, cognitive benefit, disciplined negotiations, and network-focused disruption are core instruments of that sustained nationwide response to make Infinite Warfare more and more ineffective, expensive, and in the end unsustainable for China, Russia, and Iran.

Infinite Warfare won’t finish as a result of our adversaries select peace. It’ll finish when it’s not efficient.

All statements of reality, opinion, or evaluation expressed are these of the creator and don’t replicate the official positions or views of the U.S. Authorities. Nothing within the contents must be construed as asserting or implying U.S. Authorities authentication of knowledge or endorsement of the creator’s views.

The Cipher Temporary is dedicated to publishing a spread of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals. Opinions expressed are these of the creator and don’t characterize the views or opinions of The Cipher Temporary.