Microsoft ended mainstream Home windows 10 help a yr in the past, however PC upgrades to Home windows 11 have floor to a halt, analysts stated.
Aid could not come till 2028 and even 2029, as excessive CPU costs, which analysts name “chipflation,” and excessive reminiscence costs, extensively generally known as the “RAMpocalypse” or “RAMageddon,” hold PC costs up.
PC costs have been already excessive, and up to date steps like Intel elevating CPU costs are rising the bottom value of PCs, stated Dean McCarron, principal analyst at Mercury Analysis.
“When costs are increased, demand goes down. It causes a deferred improve cycle,” McCarron stated.
Microsoft’s Home windows income from PC makers fell 27% in its newest quarter, lacking expectations, the corporate’s chief monetary officer Amy Hood stated on the corporate’s earnings name final week.
Final yr’s rush to improve from Home windows 10 boosted PC demand, however gross sales have since slowed, Hood stated. PC makers, which pay Microsoft for a Home windows license on every PC offered, are additionally nonetheless sitting on unsold inventory, Hood stated.
StatCounter numbers additionally present a gradual variety of PC customers hanging on to Home windows 10 all through most of 2026. In September, Home windows 10 was nonetheless working on 27.7% of Home windows PCs worldwide, barely up from 26.45% in February. That coincided with the PC market crash attributable to excessive RAM costs, uncertainty round tariffs, and the Iran warfare.
Home windows 11’s share of Home windows PCs jumped from about half in October 2025 to 72.57% in February after mainstream Home windows 10 help ended, then dipped to 71.5% in September. (Home windows 10 prolonged safety updates can be found for each companies — for a hefty charge — and shoppers.)
For enterprises, upgrades are extra sophisticated than making selections based mostly on worth alone, stated Neil Shah, vice chairman of analysis at Counterpoint Analysis. Corporations in a Home windows 10 end-of-support alternative cycle face a conundrum: whether or not to put money into costly AI PCs, Shah stated.
“All these developments are deflating the demand slowing down the alternative cycle,” Shah stated.
Consumers are being prudent about what to purchase and when, ready for higher offers and decrease costs, which received’t occur anytime quickly, Shah stated.
A rush to purchase PCs forward of memory-driven worth will increase boosted PC shipments by 3.2% within the first quarter of 2026, in accordance with Counterpoint. However PC shipments declined 4% within the second quarter and 21% within the third quarter.
Industrial PC replacements and Home windows migrations supplied some stability to the market, however “was inadequate to offset the broader market contraction,” Shah stated. “We…count on a 27% YoY decline in This autumn 2026, highlighting the powerful market.”
Analysts have been cut up on when PC costs will stabilize, however they agreed it received’t be 2027. Reminiscence costs will stay inflated so long as many of the provide is directed to knowledge facilities feeding the AI growth, Mercury’s McCarron stated.
Intel in its latest earnings name telegraphed that its PC chip enterprise will stay mushy via the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. Its lowest-cost PC chip, Wildcat Lake, is offered out.
Provide constraints for reminiscence and PC elements could final via 2029, stated Steven Dickens, principal analyst at Hyperframe Analysis.
“PC distributors are combating this via restricted configurations and bundles,” Dickens stated.
AI isn’t but driving PC upgrades, that are principally following a typical cycle, Dickens stated. However high-end machines able to working LLMs on-device are beginning to shift the market.
“We’re seeing energy person gadgets for native LLM deployment turning into a fabric a part of the combo and altering the unit worth common consequently,” Dickens stated.
In some unspecified time in the future, enterprises must improve PCs, and the market may also flip round, McCarron stated. If a mushy PC market goes on for too lengthy, “it should flip into a bigger growth maybe a yr later,” McCarron stated.
“It’ll lead to a bigger PC improve cycle down the street,” McCarron stated. “It’s like compressing a spring. The longer you maintain it down, the tougher it snaps again.”
