OPINION — As specialists studiously debate what the newest Israel-Iran combating will result in, together with a doable Iranian collapse, one enduring however much less understood actuality goes principally untreated: Iranians and People are extra alike than they’re completely different, and that likeness holds hope for a friendlier future. A brand new Iranian revolution would carry vital uncertainty and threat. However it might additionally carry to the fore Iranian beliefs that, in some ways, are additionally very American.
A Palpable Likeness
A couple of years in the past, whereas having fun with a relaxed dinner with a senior Iraqi officer, he proceeded to lecture me and some different People on why he thought that America and Iran had been destined to return collectively. He delivered a monologue concerning the similarities between the American and Iranian individuals, which I initially doubted however subsequently vetted with quite a few Iran specialists who largely agreed. His premise, which I now imagine to be principally correct, boiled down to 3 commonalities between People and Iranians: we’re imbued with a revolutionary spirit and nationwide satisfaction, we’re unyielding entrepreneurs, and we’re bureaucratic in our official decisionmaking, generally to a fault.
- Revolutionary Spirit – People love their revolution. We have fun it frequently, and we beckon it in virtually each nationwide speech and theme. I don’t need to show this to the Western reader as a result of it’s ever-present. Nonetheless, polling persistently exhibits America as among the many most, if not essentially the most, “patriotic,” and our revolutionary zeal is at its middle. For Iranians, their identification has been centered on revolution since 1979. That connection to the revolution has diminished, if not depleted, however the spirit of revolution as an excellent, even for these against the present regime, is foundational. My dinner visitor made this level clear: it’s not the 1979 revolution that has endured, however the underdog angle that perseveres, inspiring Iranians to outline their very own future — a drive that makes Iranians and People so alike.
- Unyielding Entrepreneurship – America is the core of entrepreneurship on the earth. Efforts to rank such traits record the US as second or third, and the US is second solely to China in patents; nevertheless, the US has led world innovation for the final century. As for Iran, the nation persistently punches above its weight in such classes. Certainly, Iranians, like People, take satisfaction of their progressive prowess. Iran frequently ranks among the many high performers for innovation within the Close to East, and it outpaces the overwhelming majority of its competitors as a middle-income nation. Consultants on Iran are eager to watch that, absent Western sanctions, Iran has the potential to develop into a know-how powerhouse. Certainly, the very cause Iran is beneath sanctions, its nuclear ambitions and development, is demonstrable of its technological know-how.
- Bureaucratic Decisionmaking – Though the shared proclivity for making official selections in a bureaucratic vogue might not seem essentially the most compelling class on the floor, it demonstrates a shared, ingrained respect for rigor and order. For all our revolutionary zeal, paradoxically, that zeal falls by the wayside in our strategy to governing, which additionally has a lengthy custom in Iran. We seem completely different on the floor; the US is democratic, and Iran is theocratic, creating vital philosophical variations. Nonetheless, each are bureaucratic in follow and construction. My dinner visitor was adamant on this level, noting that, as an Iraqi caught between two rivals, he frequently endured our entrenched structural similarities.
An AI-generated comparability of Iranian and American authorities buildings, albeit simplistic, highlights the regimented paperwork that, at greatest, characterizes each international locations’ cautious and thoughtful decisionmaking and, at worst, results in sloth. (Writer-prompted AI-generated graphic)
Commonalities May Change into Bridges
These similarities are extra than simply quaint observations; they’re core traits that encourage a nervous hope that our two international locations will come collectively. A main Israeli goal is regime change, the fallout of which may very well be harmful and violent. If regime change had been within the offing, Washington would do properly to grasp and anticipate how the US-Iranian similarities may rapidly develop into affinities influencing any path ahead. On this setting, Iranian outreach, diaspora stress, and US ally help would emerge as essential vectors for US motion.
- Iranian Outreach – A brand new revolution in Tehran would virtually actually spur better outreach towards Washington. This will likely appear counterintuitive, provided that Iranians have held unfavorable views of the US for years, however our similarities would possibly function a counterforce. Certainly, even amid Iranian disdain for People, they specific a sturdy need to normalize relations and for democracy. Moreover, Washington’s obvious effort to dissuade Israel from its army offensive might place the US as a extra approachable adversary. Washington would virtually actually be located for some fast wins with the youth who can be on the middle of any new motion. To not be flippant, however mushy energy gestures, equivalent to facilitating a live performance by the domestically well-liked Lionel Richie, are the kind of normalization gestures that Washington ought to contemplate.
- Diaspora Strain – The Iranian diaspora in the US can be a supply of knowledge and stress in Washington amid a brand new Iranian revolution. I’ve retold my dinner story to members of the diaspora, and they’re essentially the most fervent that it’s right; on one event, it introduced an Iranian-born American to tears as she insisted on its accuracy. The US is house to the most important Iranian inhabitants on the earth after Iran itself; the census places the numbers between 400,000 and 570,000, relying on ethnic combine. Additional, that diaspora is politically engaged and knowledgeable. Washington would do properly to measure the diaspora recommendation; on the one hand, they’ve the most effective pursuits of Iran in thoughts and are more likely to return and maintain posts of affect; alternatively—and as we realized in the course of the US invasion of Iraq—diaspora sources can lead with the hearts, understandably, and so counting on a number of sources of knowledge in decisionmaking can be all of the extra essential.
- Ally Help – Like my Iraqi acquaintance, American allies are more likely to need and push for a US-Iran rapprochement within the face of a brand new Iranian revolution. Some allies are well-connected and extra revered in Tehran and will function a springboard for Washington. Additional, Iranian wishes to normalize relations are much less relevant to Israel, leaving Washington to play a cleanup position if it desires a renewed Iran to emerge as comparatively pleasant. The UK, which maintains an embassy in Tehran and seems desirous to reveal its loyalty to the US, would doubtless be fast to supply help. France additionally has a diplomatic presence and doubtless would step as much as encourage stability. The ever-ambitious Turkey, house to a big diaspora inhabitants and a powerful Muslim affinity—Iran’s theocratic standing will make faith one thing to navigate—can be a necessary ally within the trigger. Canada, which helped the US safely depart Tehran after its final revolution, has just lately skilled rigidity with Iran, but it surely hosts the second-largest diaspora inhabitants after the US and can be a logical choice for trilateral or multilateral engagement.
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