Over a thousand years in the past, the Viking chief Erik the Crimson found a brand new land after being exiled for murdering his neighbor. To entice his fellow Vikings to settle the icy island, he referred to as it Greenland, highlighting its extra hospitable southern and western coasts. The settlers that took the bait struggled however endured.
At this time, Greenland’s worth wants no exaggeration. Its mineral wealth is well-understood, definitely by some in Washington, who search to accumulate the island — a Danish territory. A number of the similar voices additionally promote Greenland’s army worth. Gaining political management of the island could, in truth, be a dangerous deal for the USA, however Washington can’t afford to disregard Greenland’s significance to Arctic and North Atlantic safety.
The 2024 Protection Arctic Technique of monitor-and-respond is insufficiently resourced for competitors and never viable for battle. A geostrategic view reveals that the USA ought to view the Arctic as a connective area with necessary army ramifications for Europe and the Indo-Pacific, moderately than as a separate theater. The USA ought to re-imagine its strategic framework to view its geostrategic place as a big “line of contact” extending from the South China Sea, over the Arctic, to the Black Sea. Greenland is a linchpin on this framework, offering basing and sensor alternatives permissible by the 1951 Protection of Greenland treaty, with Danish concurrence. Modest investments in sensors and bases in Greenland would considerably improve America’s strategic Arctic place.
America’s Arctic Technique
The present American Arctic technique prioritizes competitors over battle, emphasizing allied cooperation and regional stability, however could shift below the brand new administration. The Division of Protection follows a “monitor-and-respond” strategy, detecting adversary actions moderately than sustaining a robust steady presence. This raises crucial questions: What actions — by Russia, China, or some other adversary — would justify a army response? And if the president chooses to behave, what choices can be found?
A brand new Arctic technique ought to reply the primary query.
The second query is a army problem, central to power within the Arctic. First, what ought to the USA “monitor” within the Arctic, and the way can it achieve this successfully? Second, what response choices exist, and the way can they be expanded? Extra choices are inclined to enhance decision-making — extra choices can result in higher strategic execution. Addressing these points requires stepping again to evaluate the larger image.
The Return of Geostrategy
As nice energy competitors intensifies, geostrategy takes on a renewed significance. Traditionally, the Arctic’s harsh geography blocked most ships, permitting solely the smallest, best-equipped vessels to navigate its waters. Plane, missiles, and submarines ultimately operated there, however floor ships remained confined to restricted areas throughout summer time, and land journey stays extraordinarily tough.
At this time, shrinking sea ice and increasing icebreaker fleets (particularly Russia’s) are opening new delivery routes, primarily within the Jap Hemisphere. As soon as a restricted house, the Arctic now offers a rising maritime hyperlink between the Pacific and the Atlantic, increasing strategic maneuverability, notably for Russia.
Moscow aggressively claims huge Arctic territories and has closely invested in constructing a formidable Arctic army presence. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proves its willingness to make use of power in territorial disputes. Increasing entry and rising army capabilities are making the Arctic more and more unstable. Whereas Russia has not but destabilized the area, provocative actions, comparable to dropping paratroopers close to the North Pole, sign its willingness to escalate. Competitors within the excessive north will solely intensify.
In a battle, Russia’s increasing Arctic maneuver house and long-range missile capabilities pose a serious safety problem. Opening seas enable Russian and Chinese language forces to maneuver between the Pacific and Atlantic, whereas plane and naval vessels can launch long-range missile strikes on North America or the North Atlantic from the relative security of Russian-controlled waters and airspace.
Extra regarding, Russia and China are quickly growing “exact mass” — autonomous air, sea, and undersea forces. China is constructing the primary drone plane provider, whereas Russia already operates autonomous maritime automobiles. The Russian Sarma autonomous undersea vessels can conduct long-endurance missions, enabling a persistent Russian presence unmatched by occasional American, Canadian, or Danish patrols.
Reframing Arctic Technique into America’s Geostrategy
Because the Russia-China-Iran-North Korea axis strengthens, conventional American geostrategic views are outdated. Standard threats not come solely from the east or west — the Arctic now presents a rising hazard past the existential threat of nuclear assault. It has turn out to be a zone of each day competitors and a possible battleground in future Atlantic or Pacific conflicts. Trendy threats lengthen past bombers and intercontinental missiles to incorporate a various array of air and sea techniques. Autonomous automobiles will battle alongside conventional ships and plane in massive numbers.
America’s line of contact with adversaries stretches from the First Island Chain, by way of the Bering Strait, throughout the Arctic Ocean to Norway, then down the NATO’s jap border to Turkey.
American nationwide safety is determined by defeating Arctic-based threats to North America whereas blocking Russian and Chinese language energy projection into the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Greenland is the geostrategic linchpin connecting the Arctic, North America, and Europe — a possible the USA and Denmark have but to totally leverage.
Greenland because the Linchpin in an Arctic Geostrategic Framework
Two strategic traces ought to be drawn within the Arctic, each anchored by Greenland, combining with current strategic frameworks to create the worldwide framework the USA wants. The primary is a northern protection line linking Alaska to Greenland, emphasizing air and missile protection. The second extends from Greenland to northern Norway by way of Svalbard, a modernized model of the Chilly Warfare-era Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Hole. These traces would ship the Arctic technique’s “monitor” operate and allow any “response” throughout competitors. In a battle, the surveillance capabilities establishing these traces ought to lengthen into Arctic strongholds just like the Barents Sea, enabling the USA to destroy crucial enemy targets.
Arctic Monitoring
U.S. Northern Command Commander Gen. Glen VanHerck repeatedly referred to as for elevated consciousness throughout a number of domains, together with higher sensors and information sharing. The U.S. army defines 5 domains: house, air, land, maritime, and our on-line world. A number of the domains are damaged into sub-domains (e.g., the maritime area will be damaged into floor, subsurface, and seabed). Efficient monitoring boils all the way down to sustaining protection of those domains with acceptable sensors, synthesizing the collected information, then decoding it to grasp the state of affairs and make selections. Realizing the monitoring purpose within the Arctic requires effort throughout these areas, however the main shortfall is sensors, particularly air and maritime sensors.
I cannot dive deeper into house monitoring, since it is a well-researched space. Pituffik Area Base’s main goal in the present day is as a vital node of house detection capabilities, notably for missile protection and polar orbits. The mandatory investments are already being made, or a minimum of debated, inside the Division of Protection. Air and sea sensors, although, are a special story.
Air Area Consciousness
Most discussions on Arctic air area consciousness concentrate on space-based sensors, over-the-horizon radars, and occasional deployments of airborne property comparable to massive surveillance plane just like the E-3 or unmanned plane. Shorter vary radar techniques, comparable to these within the Chilly Warfare-era North Warning System, obtain little consideration since long-range and maneuverable missiles have diminished their effectiveness.
The U.S. Area Power plans to area a space-based sensing constellation for air and floor monitoring. The USA ought to improve this funding so as to add satellites with this performance and search Danish assist. A strong polar low Earth orbit constellation would guarantee full Arctic protection whereas enhancing surveillance in different theaters. Moreover, the Danish Joint Arctic Command in Nuuk ought to have entry to this space-based intelligence.
The USA ought to complement space-based sensors with air-based platforms, constructing resilience that improves monitoring precision and bolsters communications capabilities, thereby enabling very long-range weapons. Massive air surveillance plane just like the E-3 are overburdened in the present day and demand for its alternative, the E-7, will improve in wartime. Excessive-altitude, long-endurance autonomous plane flying from Greenland may considerably enhance Arctic surveillance, assist American industrial base development, and supply re-deployable property for international sensing grids.
Present techniques just like the RQ-4 are viable, however cost-effective off-the-shelf choices will be quickly acquired. Many firms provide stratospheric long-endurance autonomous plane carrying payloads as much as 1,000 kilograms. Arctic climate presents challenges, however flying within the stratosphere mitigates most environmental impacts, with solely sensor effectiveness and launch and restoration affected.
Basing these property in Greenland facilitates patrolling each west throughout the northern line and east throughout the Greenland-Svalbard-Norway hole. The US footprint in Greenland can be minimal, doubtlessly fewer than 100 personnel, much like a drone launch and restoration unit. Many positions may very well be contracted, lowering the necessity for uniformed personnel.
Maritime Area Consciousness
Like within the air area, an area sensing community can present floor detection, however the USA ought to develop its undersea surveillance past common submarine patrols. A reasonably sized autonomous maritime power in Greenland, much like U.S. Central Command’s Activity Power 59, may present persistent protection of the Arctic east of the Lomonosov Ridge and all through the Greenland and Norwegian Seas. This power ought to leverage unmanned floor and undersea vessels, with undersea techniques taking part in a very important position.
Very similar to excessive altitude, long-endurance aerial drones, many firms provide floor and undersea techniques that the USA may capitalize on shortly. Different unconventional alternatives exist, comparable to a self-sustaining autonomous system proposed by engineers for Arctic operations that includes a wind- and water-powered floor craft carrying each aerial and undersea drones.
Like its air counterpart, this maritime autonomous process power would even be small. Activity Power 59 launched with simply 21 sailors; an identical power in Greenland may doubtless be only a couple hundred personnel.
Positioning this power on Greenland’s east coast may maximize operational affect. Bases nearer to patrol areas would improve on-station time whereas lowering transit time. Enhancing an current Danish base like Mestersvig would bolster the infrastructure wanted to enhance Arctic response choices.
Arctic Response Choices
To this point, I’ve centered on monitoring. Now I shift to responding. Whereas the USA has sturdy response army choices from Alaska, there’s a notable hole in power posture between Alaska and Norway.
Within the western Arctic (west of the Lomonosov Ridge), the U.S. has substantial army property. Alaska hosts the world’s highest focus of fifth-generation fighters (F-22s and F-35s) and the U.S. Military’s 11th Airborne Division, reactivated in 2022. Deepwater ports like Kodiak assist naval staging, whereas well-developed infrastructure in Alaska and northwest Canada allows fast deployment of long-range missile and air protection models if vital. These bases give the president a number of army response choices within the Arctic.
Within the jap Arctic (east of the Lomonosov Ridge), choices are much more restricted. Yr-round sea ice and sparse infrastructure restrict deployment capabilities in northern Canada and Greenland. The Svalbard Treaty bars army bases within the Norwegian islands. Denmark’s Joint Arctic Command operates with minimal forces. Whereas Denmark plans to spice up protection spending, the affect can be marginal. Past Norway, the Arctic from Europe to Alaska lacks infrastructure able to supporting even small power deployments (i.e., a long-range missile or air protection battalion) — leaving a 3,000-mile strategic hole throughout among the planet’s harshest terrain.
Closing this hole doesn’t require bases alongside its complete size. When wanted, main energy projection can nonetheless emanate from Alaska, northern Europe, or the Atlantic seaboard. Nevertheless, increasing capability in Greenland creates an extra staging level, providing strategic flexibility and mitigating political constraints from Canada or Norway throughout a disaster. In a battle, the U.S. Military’s Lengthy-Vary Hypersonic Weapon and different long-range anti-ship or anti-air techniques may enable missile models deployed to jap Greenland to strike targets throughout the Russian Arctic and block enemy makes an attempt to maneuver throughout the Arctic or North Atlantic.
Energy Projection
Greenland’s harbors and airstrips can’t at the moment assist large-scale army operations, however the USA doesn’t want massive bases there. Focused infrastructure enhancements can considerably enhance logistics and entry when wanted.
First, setting up a 9,000-foot runway in western Greenland at a web site like Aasiaat would complement current and deliberate capabilities at Pituffik and Kangerlussuaq. This third runway would improve operational resilience, guaranteeing fighter or bomber operations proceed regardless of Arctic climate or adversary assaults.
Secondly, establishing a U.S. outpost on Greenland’s east coast would improve American presence in a strategically necessary space. A 2023 RAND report discovered that American ships working close to Greenland had restricted on-station time as a result of distant bases. Making a base may contain completely stationed models or a cooperative settlement with Denmark, much like the U.S.-Philippines Enhanced Protection Cooperation Settlement. Upgrading an current Danish base like Mestervig to accommodate C-130 plane, frigate-class vessels, and a battalion-sized power would offer a worthwhile foothold. This base may function the hub of the maritime power described above and may very well be a web site for deploying long-range anti-ship and anti-air missile models which may disperse alongside the tough Greenland littoral.
The Actual Menace: Cash
Whereas investing in these alternatives would strengthen Arctic protection, their feasibility hinges on funding. The best impediment will not be a scarcity of strategic necessity however monetary constraints. Because the U.S. army balances fast threats, primarily from China, with long-term modernization, powerful funds selections lie forward. Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth is main a serious reprioritization of the Protection Division funds. A number of the suggestions on this article, notably improved sensing capabilities for North American protection, align with homeland and missile protection priorities. Others ought to be thought-about important to President Donald Trump’s “Peace by way of Power” initiative and advantage critical funding consideration.
A key takeaway from this geostrategic dialogue is that the Arctic connects these theaters. Prioritizing investments within the Pacific or Europe whereas neglecting even minor Arctic capabilities creates a harmful strategic hole that Russia or China may exploit. Nevertheless, any resolution should stay cost-effective, or it would lose out to higher-priority protection applications.
Conclusion
Greenland is a strategic linchpin within the Arctic, providing the US vital alternatives to reinforce safety and energy projection. Peace by way of power around the globe requires making a broader geostrategic imaginative and prescient with an Arctic framework connecting the Pacific and Atlantic. Greenland is necessary terrain which ought to be built-in into this framework. Establishing autonomous air and maritime surveillance, enhancing infrastructure, and leveraging Greenland’s place for power deployment will bolster America’s and NATO’s safety. These enhancements don’t require altering Greenland’s political standing and may very well be supported by way of partnerships with Denmark. Nevertheless, the largest problem is funding. As the USA prioritizes competitors with China, Arctic investments threat being sidelined. But failing to behave creates a harmful hole that adversaries are making ready to use. American cost-effective investments now within the strategic potential of Greenland can safe a dominant place within the Arctic, concurrently defending the homeland and international pursuits.
Aaron Brady is a U.S. Air Power officer. He’s at the moment a nationwide protection fellow in ahead protection on the Atlantic Middle’s Scowcroft Middle for Technique and Safety. The views expressed are these of the writer and don’t replicate the official coverage or place of the U.S. Air Power, Air College, Division of Protection, or the U.S. authorities.
Picture: Spc. Andrew Estrad by way of DVIDS.
