Because the starting of the U.S.-Israeli struggle on Iran, a key query continually requested is how Beijing would possibly react — assuming that China’s economic system depends on oil imported from Iran and shipped by way of the Strait of Hormuz.
In actuality, nonetheless, China is 85 p.c power self-sufficient. Whereas China imports greater than 10 p.c of its world oil whole from Iran, its power provide has lengthy been diversified internationally and electrified domestically to keep away from important dependence on any single supply. Beijing has constructed a cushion towards a short-term provide shock from a struggle within the Center East. Nonetheless, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, if extended past three months, will pose a severe check to China’s longtime assumption about unsustainable oil provide disruptions pushed by a serious regional battle.
China’s Oil Dependence on the Center East
China’s oil imports hit report highs in 2025 at 11.55 million barrels per day. Over 55 p.c of imports come from the Center East: Saudi Arabia (14.9 p.c), Iran (13 p.c), Iraq (11.2 p.c), United Arab Emirates (6.4 p.c), Oman (6.1 p.c), Kuwait (3.3 p.c), and Qatar (1.3 p.c). Except Oman, most of this oil should be shipped by way of the Strait of Hormuz. In keeping with the Chinese language authorities, barely greater than 70 p.c of the nation’s crude oil consumption depends upon import, so 38 p.c of Chinese language oil consumption depends upon imports from the Center East.
Beijing has not disclosed its oil imported from Iran since 2022, so information solely comes from third events and will be opaque. Iranian oil is transshipped by way of nations akin to Malaysia and Indonesia earlier than reaching China. Iran and China have interaction in oil for infrastructure preparations to obfuscate funds. A number of Chinese language and Western sources estimate that roughly 90 p.c of Iran’s crude oil exports find yourself in China. Kpler’s determine of 1.38 million barrels per day is broadly cited for China’s imports of Iranian oil in 2025, together with by Reuters, South China Morning Publish, and The Diplomat. Federal Reserve Financial Information/Worldwide Financial Fund information indicated Iran’s whole crude oil exports in 2025 averaged 1.55 million barrels per day, so the 1.38 million determine squares with the 90 p.c estimate.
The struggle in Iran has three direct impacts on China’s oil safety. First, the oil manufacturing and export from Iran are inevitably disrupted within the quick time period, and the timing of their resumption stays unclear. Second, Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 15, there have been 16 confirmed assaults on ships in and across the Gulf, successfully slicing off the circulate of oil. Third, Iran’s strikes and the closure of the strait have led Gulf producers to chop oil manufacturing. As of March 8, oil costs have surged to over $100 per barrel for the primary time in 4 years. Since then, it has been lingering round $90. All three impacts will instantly have an effect on China.
Is China Vitality Insecure?
China’s dependence on imported oil doesn’t have a profound impact on its power safety. If something, it solely displays dangers in a single class of the nation’s power demand.
China is, in actual fact, extremely self-sufficient by way of power provide. In keeping with Folks’s Each day, in the course of the 14th 5 12 months Plan from 2021 to 2025, China’s power self-sufficiency had persistently been above 80 p.c. As a senior government at China Nationwide Petroleum Company (China’s largest oil firm) asserted in July 2025, the precise degree of China’s power self-sufficiency is as excessive as 85 p.c. Coal stays the first element of China’s power sector: round 51.4 p.c of China’s whole power consumption. Renewable power sources surpassed oil in 2024 to turn into the second largest supply of power in China.
China’s excessive degree of self-reliance places its oil dependence in perspective. Whereas we talk about China’s 70 p.c dependence on imported crude oil and 55 p.c of its world oil imports originating from the Center East, it’s a a lot smaller portion of China’s total power pie chart when coal, photo voltaic, wind, and nuclear energy are all considered. As the maths goes, 38 p.c of China’s whole oil consumed comes from the Center East, however oil itself is lower than 20 p.c of China’s whole power consumption. China additionally produces about 30 p.c of the crude oil it consumes domestically: 215 million tons among the many 765 million tons wanted in 2025.
Chart made by writer. In keeping with the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics, coal made up 51.4 p.c of whole power consumption in 2025 and “clear power” accounted for 30.4 p.c, together with pure fuel. That leaves oil at 18.2 p.c.
Most significantly, the Chinese language economic system is transferring quickly away from fossil fuels and towards new renewable power sources. In 2025, renewable power — together with nuclear — surpassed oil because the second largest power supply, totaling greater than 20 p.c of China’s whole power consumed. China’s economic system is quickly electrifying, including extra hydro, nuclear, photo voltaic, and wind energy technology yearly. China’s power insecurity because of imported oil has been drastically alleviated on account of this electrification marketing campaign. The lower in demand for oil has turn into a pattern, and it’ll solely speed up down the highway.
Having mentioned that, the function oil performs within the Chinese language economic system stays irreplaceable, although it’s now not important for China’s power safety. Whereas automobile electrification reduces dependence on gasoline, China nonetheless depends on oil for jet gasoline, delivery, diesel gasoline for medium- and heavy-duty automobiles, and petrochemicals. These calls for will stay, albeit lessened, even when electrification continues. As China’s demand for petrochemicals will increase with its technological development, oil will stay a key contributor to China’s future financial progress.
One other issue that contributes to China’s power safety is that its oil provide is extremely diversified — a acknowledged coverage of the Chinese language authorities. The biggest share of China’s oil imports in 2025 belongs to Russia at 17.4 p.c, adopted by Saudi Arabia at 14.9 p.c. Chinese language analysts have maintained all through the years that China wouldn’t let any nation dominate greater than 15 p.c of its oil imports. The one exception has been Russia, which China sees as an indispensable companion in a shared nice energy competitors with the US.
The Actual Take a look at for China
With its restricted however actual dependence on Center Jap oil, China faces two challenges in any regional safety disaster: the disruption of manufacturing and the disruption of cargo. The diversification of oil suppliers and the electrification of the Chinese language economic system are the highest counterstrategies Beijing has pursued to scale back threat. These steps have seen some success.
Nonetheless, coming to the actual dangers China faces concerning its oil dependence, Beijing’s concept has been surprisingly underwhelming. Center East specialists and oil executives persistently argue that China’s oil safety is prone — however not susceptible — to threat. Their basic perception is that an power disaster attributable to a regional battle within the Center East is not going to be sustainable: The struggle might drag on, however oil will most certainly need to be let by way of. Within the Chinese language view, a protracted shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz — assuming Iran is able to such an motion — will set off a world power disaster and jeopardize the pursuits of each regional producers and world shoppers alike. In that state of affairs, China anticipates that each one events to the battle, together with the US, will likely be pressured to ultimately climb down the escalation ladder and search a negotiated settlement. Such a disaster, subsequently, will likely be resolved by collective grievances making a collective answer. China has dispatched its Particular Envoy for Center Jap Affairs, Zhai Jun, to the area for shuttle diplomacy. It’s conceivable that China will coalesce positions for a possible ceasefire with nations within the area.
For years, whereas vigorously slicing again its power dependence on Center Jap oil, China has couched its contingency planning on the belief {that a} main regional battle within the Center East will neither be doubtless nor sustainable. Chinese language interlocutors have persistently denied the necessity for China to develop a navy presence within the area, citing the improbability of a complete lack of China’s power entry there.
If the closure of the strait lasts for months — inserting China’s oil imports below stress — Beijing could also be pushed to take motion. China will likely be extra more likely to align positions with main oil shoppers and producers, exerting stress on Washington for a ceasefire to hunt restoration of shipments by way of the strait. That proposal may probably be widespread with the remainder of the world. If the US has not achieved its desired final result — which has not been publicly disclosed — within the struggle by then, it’ll face mounting stress to ease tensions with Iran.
The influence of the Iran struggle on China’s oil dependence is extremely nuanced. China imports greater than 10 p.c of its world whole from Iran, however China’s power consumption has lengthy been diversified internationally and electrified domestically to keep away from important dependence on any single exporter. China has couched its confidence within the power provide from the Center East on the perceived unsustainable nature of a serious battle. That assumption is now being put to an actual check.
Yun Solar, Ph.D., is the director of the China program on the Stimson Middle. She makes a speciality of Chinese language international coverage.
Picture: NAVCENT Public Affairs through Wikimedia Commons
