5 years in the past, we warned {that a} snap determination to depart Syria — abandoning the U.S. Kurdish-led associate drive that has fought the Islamic State in Syria for the final 10 years whereas 1000’s of suspected fighters remained in detention — would offer a devastating setback to the battle in opposition to the fear group and injury general American credibility. A couple of weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurdish Individuals’s Safety Items, we argued the US would want to take care of the power to battle remnants of the Islamic State and make sure the fighters in detention would stay there. Washington ceded a lot of its negotiating energy within the nation to Moscow and Ankara, solely to reverse course just a few months later and preserve a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to forestall an influence vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gasoline infrastructure.
As we speak, the US and its Kurdish-led companions face a virtually similar set of challenges, however in a massively modified steadiness of energy in Syria. Final month, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Syrian opposition group with earlier ties to al-Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State, shocked the world with an offensive alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military that shortly toppled the Assad regime inside 10 days. Below President-elect Donald Trump, the US ought to stay centered on its main safety goal in Syria: stopping a resurgence of the Islamic State.
Regardless of political nominees like incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s reassurances that the US is unlikely to desert its companions in Syria, Trump himself has been extra ambivalent on Syria. He could also be satisfied that it’s potential to safe American pursuits with out troops in Syria, as he appeared to be throughout his final time period as president. As such, his administration might want to interact in intensive diplomatic efforts to put the groundwork in Syria for a potential American departure whereas nonetheless making certain the Islamic State is contained and thwarted from worldwide assaults. The Trump administration can do that by making certain Islamic State fighters stay in detention awaiting repatriation, or by championing a longer-term answer that may require limiting any Turkish or Turkish-backed incursion into the Kurdish-held areas the place they’re detained. It should additionally have to focus efforts on facilitating dialogue between Turkey and the Kurdistan Employees’ Get together and its Syrian affiliate to assist ease tensions alongside the Syrian-Turkish border. It should even be important for the US to help its associate drive in participating with the brand new authorities of Syria to fold Kurdish-held areas within the northeast again below a united Syrian authorities.
Stopping a Resurgence
Regardless of its historic proclivities, a very powerful factor the incoming administration can do proper now could be train persistence by reaffirming the American dedication to the present navy mission in Syria. There isn’t any have to develop it. This shall be a tough step however it would take pleasure in retaining strain on the Islamic State whereas additionally permitting the US to make the most of alternatives which will emerge with the brand new Syrian authorities. The present scenario deserves sturdy consideration of this strategy.
Latest reporting signifies that the variety of assaults carried out by the Islamic State in Syria in 2024 greater than tripled in comparison with 2023. The resurgence of the group in Syria is partly a results of years of efforts to relocate and reestablish itself within the Badiya, a desolate location in central Syria beforehand below the management of the previous Assad regime and properly past the more practical working areas and watchful eyes of the American-backed Kurdish drive. The present chaos ensuing from the overthrow of Bashar al Assad and the anticipated energy wrestle between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, different militia teams, exterior actors, and others imply that, within the brief time period, a void is prone to emerge — one which the fear group shall be eager to fill as shortly as potential. We now have already seen indications of how this might have an effect on the scenario — with Turkish posturing round Kobane and the diversion of the Syrian Democratic Forces’ consideration away from the Islamic State.
It may worsen, with unsure management over former regime weapon and ammunition stockpiles, roughly 9000 detained Islamic State fighters in Northeast Syria — a digital “military in detention” that will be a prize for liberation by remnants of the group — in addition to about 43,000 displaced relations of the fighters dwelling in makeshift camps. A strengthened Islamic State would considerably speed up their efforts in Syria — and sure in Iraq, the place coalition-backed Iraqi Safety Forces are doing an admirable job retaining the lid on the remnants of the group. A Syrian platform for exterior Islamic State assaults may develop alternatives for operations like we noticed in January and March 2024 in Kerman and Moscow.
The significance of the small, sustainable, and inexpensive U.S. presence (below 2000 troops) in northeastern Syria has by no means been better than it’s as we speak. It’s a drive punching far above its weight, representing lower than 5 p.c of the general U.S. navy presence within the Center East, and working at a fraction of the associated fee and energy it might take to reply to a full-blown Islamic State resurgence. It could additionally take pleasure in strengthening American leverage over Iran and creating extra strain to alter their habits, in addition to enhancing American standing within the Center East.
Pragmatic Diplomatic Engagement
Whereas navy motion is critical, it’s not ample. Pragmatic diplomatic, financial, and messaging efforts ought to accompany navy actions with the goal of participating the rising Syrian transitional authorities to acquire settlement for continued American and American-backed operations in opposition to the Islamic State in beforehand regime-held areas of Syria, disposition of detained fighters and relations, and safety of sovereign borders. Washington also needs to attempt to strengthen its navy companions in Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq as they are going to be important to the containment of the Islamic State within the area.
The incoming Trump administration needs to be ready to search out inventive methods to supply Turkey the reassurance it must halt clashes and stop a possible Turkish incursion, which threatens to undo the final 10 years of the battle in opposition to the fear group. The Islamic State stays keen and extra in a position than ever to make the most of the safety setting in Syria. If Kurdish forces are pulled away from guarding the prisons and encampments, it’s only a matter of time till remnants of the group try one other jail break, such because the one in Hasakah in 2022.
Regardless of an American-brokered truce between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed teams in Syria, the specter of extra clashes or a possible Turkish incursion to take the cities of Manbij and Kobani in addition to the encompassing areas, stays. The de facto chief of the Kurdish forces, Gen. Mazloum Abdi, has proposed a sequence of concessions from the Kurdish group that embrace a demilitarized zone in Kobani — which the Turks have rejected — and a suggestion for all non-Syrian Kurdish fighters to depart Syria if a truce might be reached, a concession the Turks have lengthy demanded.
Ankara stays unable to separate the Syrian Kurdish group from its Turkish-based affiliate the Kurdistan Employees’ Get together, designated as a terrorist group by the United Nations, the US, and naturally Turkey. Whereas there is no such thing as a query that the 2 teams stay affiliated and share a objective for Kurdish autonomy, the Syrian Kurds have demonstrated repeatedly since 2014, after they turned a associate within the battle in opposition to the Islamic State alongside the US and International Coalition, that they’re dedicated to eradicating the specter of the fear group, adhering to a “One Syria” coverage, and making certain Kurdish rights are represented in the way forward for Syria.
America also needs to be on the helm of each selling and facilitating engagement and dialogue amongst all events. A constructive signal from Turkey is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s determination to permit visits to the Kurdistan Employees’ Get together’s jailed chief, Abdullah Ocalan, in a sign that Erdogan could also be able to return to a dialogue with Kurdish teams. Additional, Abdi’s go to to northern Iraq to satisfy with Masrour Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Get together, which has good ties with Turkey, is one other sign of progress. The Assad regime, in addition to Russian and American forces, have beforehand acted as a suitable buffer for Turkey, which has considered an armed Kurdish nationalist presence on the Syrian-Turkish border as a risk. Twin-security preparations comparable to these in Manbij with joint American-Turkish patrols and in Qamishli between the previous Syrian regime, Russia, and Kurdish forces present helpful historic examples of potential preparations the US can pursue alongside regional companions or parts of the brand new Syrian Ministry of Protection to alleviate Turkish considerations and be certain that the main focus in Syria stays on stopping a resurgence of the Islamic State in order that the peoples of Syria are free to concentrate on rebuilding their nation.
Lastly, the US also needs to proceed the Biden administration’s work to facilitate a productive dialogue between the Kurdish-led forces within the northeast and the brand new chief of Syria, Ahmad al Sharaa, and his rising authorities. Latest American delegations to Damascus have helped safe assurances from Sharaa that the brand new Syrian authorities won’t enable terrorist organizations just like the Islamic State to function from inside its borders, demonstrating Sharaa’s dedication to discovering a sustainable answer for the northeast. Syria’s new chief has additionally supplied the Kurds a path for inclusion — supplied any parts of the Turkish-based Kurdistan Employees’ Get together in Syria depart the nation and the armed teams combine into the brand new authorities. The Syrian Kurds have answered Sharaa’s pragmatism with their very own, elevating the brand new flag of Syria in areas below their management and facilitating a assembly between Mazloum and Sharaa. A lot of this groundwork is being facilitated by the present Biden crew, however the incoming administration might want to proceed these efforts and clarify to the Kurdish forces that the US won’t be placing any extra pores and skin within the sport.
Conclusion
Whereas it’s unclear what precisely Trump will do when he assumes workplace subsequent week, he has made clear — each throughout his earlier time period and within the lead as much as this one — that U.S. involvement in Syria won’t proceed without end. With the American presence within the northeast on a possible timetable, the outgoing and incoming administrations ought to concentrate on what parts might be influenced by American engagement to safe the pursuits of the US and set the desk for what’s prone to be a speedy departure. Stopping a resurgence by the Islamic State stays the highest precedence, however so as to take action, the US ought to pursue insurance policies that guarantee continuity of Islamic State detentions. For that to happen, the Kurdish forces in Syria want to have the ability to stay centered on safeguarding the prisons and displaced individuals encampments, and may solely achieve this by American-brokered cessation of hostilities agreements, in addition to facilitating engagement of all events to alleviate Turkish considerations and promote a unified Syria free from terrorist threats.
Gen. (ret.) Joseph Votel served as commander of U.S. Central Command from March 2016 to March 2019. In that position, Votel oversaw navy operations throughout the area, together with the marketing campaign in opposition to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Earlier than Central Command, he was the commander of the U.S. Particular Operations Command and the Joint Particular Operations Command. Votel is a non-resident distinguished senior fellow on nationwide safety on the Center East Institute.
Elizabeth Dent is a senior fellow on the Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage, the place she focuses on U.S. international and protection coverage towards the Gulf States, Iraq, and Syria. She was beforehand the director for the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula within the Workplace of the Secretary of Protection and labored in numerous capacities on the State Division for the U.S. International Coalition to Defeat the Islamic State from 2014 to 2019.
Picture: Sgt. Matthew Callahan through DVIDS.
