It’s nonetheless Charlie Baker’s Republican Get together in Massachusetts.
Greater than two years after he departed the Nook Workplace for the NCAA, Baker continues to dominate the Bay State GOP, with two Baker disciples, Brian Shortsleeve and Mike Kennealy, now the main candidates to tackle Democrat Maura Healey in 2026.
GOP donor and businessman Michael Minogue, who has raised cash for the Trump ticket, can be contemplating a gubernatorial marketing campaign, because the Herald has reported.
However regardless of the affect of MAGA, the one Republican who can win statewide subsequent November is somebody who owns the Baker model of Republicanism.
A Trump Republican gained’t minimize it statewide in a common election. About 1.2 million individuals voted for Trump in Massachusetts final yr, however that’s not practically sufficient to win.
A MassINC Polling Group survey this yr confirmed Baker with a 40-34% lead over Sen. Ed Markey, whereas a UMass Amherst ballot this yr discovered that Baker was working useless even with Markey, although Baker has stated he isn’t working for Senate.
However the polls present simply how formidable the Baker identify nonetheless is in Massachusetts. He might waltz into the Senate race if he wished and develop into immediately aggressive.
Shortsleeve and Kennealy each have shut ties to the previous Republican governor; Shortsleeve ran the MBTA beneath Baker and Kennealy was Baker’s housing secretary.
Kennealy has already employed two former Baker aides, adviser Jim Conroy and former marketing campaign supervisor Bryan Wynne.
However Shortsleeve has probably the most potential to emerge as Baker’s successor in main the social gathering. He’s a Marine veteran who led the MBTA beneath Baker and is vowing to repeal the MBTA Communities Act, which is unpopular in lots of communities..
Shortsleeve has additionally charged that Healey is prioritizing migrants over veterans and atypical voters.
Healey has largely been a disappointment in her dealing with of the migrant disaster and the funds. She might be susceptible to a tricky problem from a Baker sort reasonable. She is now blaming Trump for all the things, which is a cop-out.
The issue for each Shortsleeve and Kennealy, and doubtlessly Minogue, is that they must enchantment to GOP conservatives within the major, then shortly pivot to enchantment to moderates within the common.
Baker left deeply unpopular with Trump voters, and should not have been in a position to win a major when he made his exit, regardless of his reputation.
However when he was governor, Baker was a uncommon unifying chief in Massachusetts, with Democrats and all however probably the most conservative of Republicans embracing him all through his two phrases.
His harsh criticism of Donald Trump alienated him from the conservative wing of the social gathering however didn’t take a lot of a toll on his reputation – in reality it most likely helped him.
Baker had his personal type of governing, taking a principally reasonable to liberal path on social points and a conservative path on fiscal points. And it labored.
He left workplace in 2022 with astonishing approval scores – practically 70% throughout all demographic and political teams besides conservatives, based on a UMass Amherst ballot. He was far and away extra well-liked than both of the 2 candidates working to switch him, together with Maura Healey.
This got here regardless of a number of scandals in the course of the Covid period that minimize into his reputation.
Seven in ten voters stated he dealt with the pandemic properly, with greater than six in ten voters giving him excessive marks on the economic system.
One third of voters stated he left Massachusetts in higher form than when he first took over in 2015, whereas simply 19% stated it was worse off than earlier than.
A MassINC ballot launched in Jan. 2022 discovered that 45% of voters wished the subsequent governor to be like Baker ideologically, and 42% had been extra more likely to help a candidate who had Baker’s endorsement.
