Can India afford to maintain chasing China’s navy shadow — or ought to it settle for strategic realities and select a distinct path?
As China continues to surge forward in navy modernization — exemplified by the current unveilings of the J-36 stealth fighter and the Sort 076 amphibious assault ship — India finds itself grappling with a stark actuality: It isn’t merely lagging behind however dealing with a widening and doubtlessly unbridgeable hole. Whereas the home media and political rhetoric have lengthy framed India as a rising energy able to competing with China, its persistent reliance on protection imports, sluggish indigenous manufacturing, and bureaucratic inertia complicate this geopolitical ambition.
The query, then, is whether or not India ought to proceed its pursuit of this technological and navy parity with China or recalibrate its technique by acknowledging its comparative benefits, selectively buying key applied sciences, and adopting a extra pragmatic, long-term protection posture. This isn’t only a navy debate however one which strikes at India’s strategic id, forcing a reckoning with its ambitions, its limitations, and the narratives which have formed its protection coverage for many years. At its core, given the circumstances, India ought to transfer past reactive comparisons and symbolic posturing and as a substitute confront the structural and perceptual boundaries — each inside its strategic institution and within the public narrative — which have lengthy distorted its protection priorities.
Chasing China?
China’s fast strides in navy modernization proceed to dominate the regional stability of energy, underscoring its rising superiority in protection know-how. The current maiden flight of the sixth-generation stealth fight plane — coupled with different developments in naval energy such because the enlargement of its amphibious assault fleet — underscore China’s makes an attempt to bolster its navy modernization. Collectively, these developments place China to boost its air superiority and operational attain, which may have important implications for regional safety dynamics, significantly in relation to India.
In distinction, India’s bold protection modernization, spearheaded by its extremely touted “Make in India” initiative, continues to fall quick, significantly in areas of cutting-edge gear growth and know-how consciousness. Regardless of mighty bold targets of indigenization, New Delhi’s navy–industrial complicated stays closely reliant on imports for essential protection applied sciences, exposing the obtrusive hole between aspiration and execution.
Whereas Indian policymakers have lengthy emphasised the necessity to transition from buying international know-how to fostering home-grown innovation, progress stays excruciatingly gradual. “We’re chasing know-how now. We should always attain a stage, the place know-how comes out of India and others are chasing it,” reiterates India’s Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh, including to the mounting criticisms from Indian Air Power veterans chastising the nation’s premier aeronautics producer, Hindustan Aeronautics Restricted, for its recurring supply delays, significantly just about the Tejas Mk1.5. India’s over-reliance on Hindustan Aeronautics Restricted has confronted intense scrutiny as a consequence of structural inefficiencies in protection procurement that pose a serious danger to the nation’s aerial fight preparedness. Hindustan Aeronautics Restricted’s delayed supply of the Tejas fighter and recurring points with the Sukhoi Su-30 MKI jet and the Superior Gentle Dhruv helicopter spotlight structural inefficiencies which have hampered the Indian Air Power’s fight readiness.
This actuality forces India right into a second of reckoning.
Additional complicating issues for India, the Pakistan Air Power has not too long ago agreed to purchase, an export-oriented variant of the Chinese language J-31 stealth fighter, with deliveries anticipated by 2026. The J-31 is designed for each air superiority and strike missions. If Pakistan acquires even a small variety of these jets, it’s going to neutralize the Indian Air Power’s historic edge in air superiority over its neighbor. This shift in regional air energy stability may pressure India into reactive mode, fairly than a strategically dominant place. The mixture of those developments presents a transparent problem for India, each by way of its rapid safety issues and its broader navy modernization targets.
Struggles and Stagnation of India’s Protection Modernization
Whereas each China and Pakistan, risky neighbors and adversaries of India, bolster their air capabilities, New Delhi now faces the twin problem of strengthening its personal defenses whereas remaining agile in an surroundings the place even non-aggressive actions — strategic deployments, routine border patrols, or shifts in navy posture — could be perceived as aggressive and result in escalatory actions as a result of fragile and extremely charged political and safety dynamics of the area. Seeing itself as one of many dominant powers within the neighborhood, India is compelled to all the time keep a step forward, guaranteeing its deterrence and readiness in opposition to any potential exterior threats, even from a much less aggressive neighbor.
In opposition to the backdrop of such Chinese language technological breakthroughs, the predominant sentiment in India following this specific launch of the J-36 grew to become that of panic — with the bureaucratic, coverage, and navy communities scrambling to search out options simply to remain within the race, even when it meant trailing China. This was primarily as a result of most of India’s homegrown ventures have to this point lagged economically, technologically, and intellectually. Struggling even within the early phases of creating its fifth-generation fighter, the Superior Medium Fight Plane, India now faces urgent issues about the way forward for its navy modernization, the effectiveness of its indigenous protection initiatives, and the way its strategic imaginative and prescient ought to evolve in response to China’s rising navy capabilities.
The important thing query stays whether or not India can maintain tempo with China’s technological developments indigenously — particularly when plane just like the J-36 have already far outstripped its present capabilities in stealth and fight efficiency. Is India ready to simply accept the continued necessity of protection imports from the West or Russia, given its technological constraints and the sluggish tempo of home protection manufacturing? Or has it matured to some extent the place it could actually undertake a extra pragmatic method, participating strategically with China to navigate regional dynamics whereas transferring past perpetual comparisons, permitting it to focus by itself protection priorities and long-term growth?
Setting the Scene: Political Rhetoric vs Strategic Actuality
As China’s energy rises, the specter of a border conflict inflicting home humiliation will stay a strong pressure shaping Indian international coverage. The launch of the J-36 solely amplifies these issues, posing important challenges for India and compelling a reassessment of its ambitions to overtake its navy–industrial complicated.
So as to add to this, the political rhetoric for years has tried to hawk inside home circles India’s functionality of defending itself in opposition to China, typically downplaying or disregarding the fact of its technological limitations to keep away from the notion of weak point on the worldwide stage. Nonetheless, the standoffs with China in 2017 and 2020 uncovered the cruel actuality of those gaps in India’s navy modernization, significantly in plane growth, nuclear submarines, cyber and house capabilities, stealth know-how, digital warfare, and missiles. These shortcomings, lengthy acknowledged by the navy, have largely been ignored by politicians and the media, as addressing the gaps would danger undermining the credibility of these in energy. Moreover, given the Indian voters’s deep inclination towards a authorities that tasks power in opposition to China’s aggression on the de facto worldwide boundary, generally known as the Line of Precise Management, the stress on any administration to seem powerful has typically overshadowed extra strategic issues in shaping India’s China coverage. Certainly, acknowledging the navy hole would problem the prevailing political narrative, doubtlessly weakening India’s standing each domestically and internationally. This narrative clashes with the extra sober assessments of protection specialists, resulting in a dissonance between public discourse and strategic actuality.
Confronting the Hole Between Ambition and Actuality
On this context, India is beginning to reassess its psychological attachment to comparisons with China. A shift towards realism and an acceptance of the in depth technological, financial, and industrial gaps between the 2 nations — which might replicate a major departure from what India so lengthy imagined to be a standard dyadic rivalry — may pave the way in which for extra pragmatic protection methods.
India can certainly pursue a multifaceted method: creating its personal protection know-how, importing the place crucial, and sustaining a realistic and constructive relationship with China. In principle, these goals needn’t be mutually unique. However in recent times, the political and strategic discourse has been dominated by the have to outpace China, which has, in flip, formed India’s protection coverage into considered one of “aggressive self-sufficiency.” The rhetoric of competing with China has fueled a nationwide narrative the place reliance on international imports, significantly in superior protection applied sciences, has been more and more considered as unacceptable. The political confidence of the Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) imaginative and prescient, whereas essential for constructing a sturdy protection ecosystem, has additionally led to a deep institutional want to cut back dependence on international powers for imports, particularly in essential protection applied sciences.
Consequently, India has leaned closely into creating indigenous capabilities — typically on the expense of rapid, sensible options. The ideological dedication to self-reliance, mixed with a hardline stance on China, makes it difficult for India to recalibrate its method. Adjusting to a extra pragmatic stance, the place protection imports are seen as a complement fairly than a compromise to nationwide sovereignty, would require a basic shift in each coverage and notion. The political narrative constructed over time round self-sufficiency and the aggressive rhetoric in opposition to China would wish to evolve, which isn’t any small feat. Because of this, the necessity for stability turns into much less a matter of functionality and extra considered one of overcoming the home inertia that has embedded these positions into public coverage and common sentiment. For India, the problem now isn’t just technological parity — it’s a query of nationwide satisfaction and strategic id.
India’s protection institution stays distracted by symbolic gestures, from statue-building to revising historic narratives. Many years of stagnation have left India struggling to maintain tempo. The Indian Air Power faces an operational disaster too, with solely 31 of 42 sanctioned fighter squadrons practical, exacerbated by delays in plane acquisition and pilot shortages. In the meantime, long-term indigenous options just like the Superior Medium Fight Plane and Gentle Fight Plane Mark-II are years away, with the previous’s first flight now pushed to 2028 — highlighting the pressing want for rapid motion. The Indian Air Power’s present operational shortfall doesn’t simply suggest gradual modernization — it dangers undermining India’s protection posture at a time of heightened stress. Its skirmishes on the border with China marked a turning level. The failure to successfully counter China’s assertiveness on the bottom additional amplified the urgency, triggering a extra eager sense of disparity inside India’s protection institution.
This creates a cognitive dissonance in India’s protection coverage. On one hand, India is fiercely dedicated to indigenization and self-reliance, as highlighted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s emphasis on Atmanirbhar Bharat. Then again, the nation lacks the strong infrastructure to assist a thriving, heavy navy manufacturing business — one thing China has efficiently developed over many years. China’s potential to construct next-generation fighter jets and cutting-edge navy gear is the results of its huge and built-in industrial base, which spans each protection and civilian sectors. India, nevertheless, nonetheless lacks this dual-use functionality and should reckon with the mismatch between ambition and functionality.
This example presents India with an inner dilemma. The federal government has ridiculed the notion of counting on imports in protection issues, however the home protection manufacturing ecosystem has not saved up with the nation’s rising safety wants. Furthermore, opposition events have usually identified the issues and delays in India’s protection modernization, accusing the federal government of political grandstanding fairly than delivering on its guarantees. The authorities’s dismissive stance towards these critiques solely provides gas to the hearth, making it troublesome for India to chart a transparent course ahead.
Breaking the Cycle: Acceptance, Adaptation, and a Strategic Equilibrium?
Currently, nevertheless, there was a noticeable maturity in India’s method to its relationship with China, transferring away from overt comparisons and specializing in pragmatic engagement. India has not too long ago shifted towards a extra pragmatic method, which doesn’t imply abandoning comparisons altogether, however fairly transferring previous the hole between confrontational rhetoric and actuality. In a mid-March podcast, Prime Minister Modi made his warmest remarks on China in years, emphasizing that “solely via dialogue can we construct a steady, cooperative relationship.” Chinese language officers welcomed the gesture. This shift didn’t emerge in isolation. Lower than six months in the past, India and China struck a deal to disengage troops from the final two remaining incursion websites on the Line of Precise Management, signaling a pathway towards normalization.
India now finds itself straddling a fragile stability between a shifting diplomatic stance and the realities of its navy shortcomings. For instance, India has not too long ago stopped making grandiose comparisons between its “vibrant villages” and China’s high-tech infrastructure within the border areas, or has kept away from mentioning the “established order” vis-a-vis border points. This recognition of the financial disparities between India and China is a optimistic growth and will function the premise for a extra real looking navy technique. Whereas political rhetoric has softened, suggesting a transfer towards normalization with China, India’s protection institution stays locked in a reactive cycle — struggling to bridge technological gaps whereas grappling with delays and dependencies. The dilemma then stays whether or not India can break away from symbolic posturing and decide to a realistic, forward-looking technique that prioritizes actual navy functionality.
India can now not afford to view China as a mirror to its personal navy ambitions, particularly when the disparity is so profound. The problem lies in overcoming the entrenched rhetoric and coverage frameworks that current protection growth as an either-or situation: both Indian self-reliance or competitors with China. It’s this dichotomy, which has develop into deeply ingrained in India’s nationwide discourse, that makes the adjustment towards a extra pragmatic and nuanced technique troublesome.
The widening hole between its protection ambitions and realities can now not be ignored or papered over with rhetoric. The talk is now not about whether or not reform is critical, however whether or not India has the political will and institutional capability to execute it. With out daring, decisive motion, India’s aspirations of navy self-reliance will stay unfulfilled. The federal government’s push for modernization, together with streamlining acquisition processes and fostering technological collaboration, is a step in the suitable route. Nonetheless, previous makes an attempt have faltered as a consequence of bureaucratic inertia, infighting, and an incapacity to translate imaginative and prescient into execution. If India is to interrupt free from this cycle, it ought to commit to some key imperatives, that are mentioned beneath.
First, rebuild and strengthen the navy–industrial complicated. India’s protection sector wants structural overhauls, not simply coverage tweaks. Hindustan Aeronautics Restricted and the Protection and Analysis Growth Group needs to be reformed to perform with larger effectivity, accountability, and competitiveness. Bureaucratic roadblocks in procurement and indigenous growth should be dismantled to fast-track key tasks just like the Superior Medium Fight Plane and Tejas. With out a sturdy home protection ecosystem, self-reliance will stay an phantasm.
Second, prioritize navy urgency over symbolism. Grand narratives of self-reliance needs to be matched with hard-nosed pragmatism. This implies making troublesome selections about the place indigenous growth is possible within the close to time period and the place exterior procurement stays important.
Third, fast-track protection procurement with a strategic focus. The Indian Air Power’s dwindling squadron power and stalled acquisitions demand rapid consideration. Whereas indigenous platforms needs to be prioritized, India must also make swift and pragmatic selections on interim procurements to keep away from functionality gaps. Protection offers needs to be pushed by operational urgency, not political optics.
Fourth, leverage international partnerships for actual functionality positive aspects. Whereas self-reliance is the purpose, India ought to strike a stability between indigenization and leveraging strategic partnerships. Whether or not sourcing know-how from France, the USA, or Russia, each deal ought to guarantee know-how switch and industrial collaboration fairly than simply {hardware} acquisitions.
Lastly, transfer past reactive navy planning. India’s obsession with matching China at each flip has led to a defensive, reactionary posture. As a substitute of chasing parity, India ought to outline a navy technique based mostly on its distinctive safety wants — prioritizing naval enlargement, superior uneven capabilities, and pressure projection the place it issues most.
As political winds shift and India recalibrates its method to China, it ought to be certain that the current diplomatic thaw doesn’t result in strategic complacency. Whereas dialogue could supply non permanent stability, deterrence in the end rests on a mix of navy functionality and political resolve. If India fails to behave now, it dangers not simply enjoying catch-up later however being strategically sidelined in an evolving international order. The time for half-measures has handed. India ought to both decide to severe navy transformation or settle for the results of stagnation.
Hely Desai is a analysis affiliate on the Council for Strategic and Protection Analysis in New Delhi. She is an incoming Ph.D. candidate on the College of Cambridge, the place she additionally acquired a Grasp’s in Philosophy. She can be a Analysis Fellow with the Complete Take a look at Ban Treaty Group and a mentor for the Youth Chief Fund on the United Nations Workplace of Disarmament Affairs.
Picture: Indian Prime Minister’s Workplace through Wikimedia Commons.
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