An increase within the want for computer systems and knowledge facilities to energy AI is inflicting an enormous scarcity of RAM, driving reminiscence costs sharply increased. Now, analyst agency IDC predicts that it will trigger smartphone shipments to plummet by 12.9% this 12 months, making it the most important single-year dip in additional than a decade.
Earlier this 12 months, IDC reported that producers shipped 1.26 billion units in 2025. The agency predicts that determine will drop to only 1.12 billion this 12 months.
“The reminiscence disaster will trigger greater than a short lived decline; it marks a structural reset of the complete market, essentially reshaping the lengthy‑time period TAM [total addressable market], the seller panorama, and the product combine,” mentioned Nabila Popal, senior analysis director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Cellular Telephone Tracker, in a press release.
Popal mentioned that due to reminiscence scarcity, the common retail worth of a smartphone is predicted to rise by 14%.
“We count on consolidation as smaller gamers exit, and low-end distributors face sharp cargo declines amid provide constraints and decrease demand at increased worth factors. Though shipments will witness a file drop, smartphone ASP [average selling price] is projected to rise 14% to a file $523 this 12 months,” she added.
Popal additionally famous that rising element prices may make the sub-$100 smartphone “completely uneconomical,” pricing out telephone makers that manufacture units at that worth level.
The agency mentioned that, due to this development, shipments within the Center East and Africa will drop greater than 20% year-over-year. China and the broader Asia Pacific area (excluding Japan) may also see declines of 10.5% and 13.1%, respectively.
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June 9, 2026
IDC added that it expects RAM costs to stabilize by mid-2027.
Final 12 months, one other analyst agency, Counterpoint, additionally forecast a decline in smartphone shipments, however it projected a fall smaller dip of simply 2.6%.
Earlier this 12 months, Nothing co-founder and CEO Carl Pei additionally warned that smartphones will value extra in 2026 as reminiscence prices for smartphones rise. “Manufacturers now face a easy selection: elevate costs by 30% or extra in some circumstances, or downgrade specs. The ‘extra specs for much less cash’ mannequin that many worth manufacturers had been constructed on is not sustainable in 2026,” he mentioned.
“In consequence, some markets, significantly entry and mid-tier segments, are more likely to shrink by 20% or extra, and types which have traditionally dominated these segments will wrestle,” Pei added.
