Deliberation and debate the world over proceed apace on the query of what Donald Trump’s victory means for world safety. In Europe, discussions seem to have already attained a frenetic pitch. Leaders in Brussels and different capitals visibly fret over the likelihood that america might withdraw its assist for Ukraine or maybe go away NATO altogether. Including to those worries is the probability that the Trump administration might provoke a commerce warfare with the European Union, an act that would result in additional instability. Including his voice to those considerations is Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. In an interview with Bloomberg, Mitsotakis emphasised the necessity for Europe to return collectively to strengthen its “strategic autonomy” and “be certain that the European financial system turns into extra aggressive” within the wake of the American election. Nonetheless, Greece’s prime minister was among the many first European leaders to congratulate Trump on his success, declaring his want to deepen “the strategic partnership between our two international locations.”
Throughout the Aegean from Athens, there have been far fewer seen indicators of apprehension or fear on the evening of Trump’s victory. Peruse the X accounts of a lot of Turkey’s extra distinguished media personalities and you’ll discover little sorrow or regret in the case of Vice President Kamala Harris’ electoral defeat. Because the hour approached eleven on election evening, CNN Türk’s Washington correspondent tweeted his personal sourly curt summation of the day’s outcomes. “Relaxation in peace, Biden. Trump took his revenge.” Main the best way in embracing the information of Trump’s election was Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In congratulating his “good friend” on his triumph, Erdogan expressed his perception that Turkish-American relations would enhance and that “regional and world crises and wars, particularly the Palestinian concern and the Russia-Ukraine warfare, will come to an finish.”
Look extra carefully on the protection and commentary in Greece and Turkey within the days because the election and you’ll discover a much more advanced set of reactions. For all of the difficulties Europe might encounter with a brand new Trump administration, editors in Athens see a definite risk that Greek-American relations might in truth enhance within the coming months and years forward. Precedents set beneath the primary Trump administration, in addition to newer developments, endow many commentators in Greece with this confidence. The view from Turkey is strikingly extra blended. Regardless that some American commentators have voiced cautious optimism at the potential for a extra cooperative period in Turkish-American relations, editors and pundits have tended to emphasise better trepidation at what they see as the start of a doubtlessly extra risky interval forward. Trump’s second coming, by and huge, shouldn’t be seen as a welcome reduction in the case of points that matter most to the nation’s commentariat. Offsetting this nervousness, nevertheless, is a real satisfaction with the prospects going through america as a world energy. Trump’s return to energy, as many see it, will weaken Washington and assist pace the demise of the West as a world drive.
Greece in a New Panorama
There may be little doubt amongst Greece’s commentariat that severe challenges lie forward for the nation because it faces a “new panorama.” Few deny that the core drawback earlier than Athens is Europe’s unity and effectiveness within the face of a extra combative American president. Elevated strain from Washington on Europe’s largest and wealthier international locations, as one observer famous, probably might lead smaller nations, like Greece, to hunt stronger bilateral relations with america. A weakening European consensus not solely would undermine Greek requires better “strategic autonomy” amongst E.U. states, however place the area’s pursuit of financial progress and power independence in danger. Nearer to dwelling, Greek commentators have lamented the potential progress of populists in Europe, a phenomenon that doubtlessly may jeopardize Mitsotakis’ maintain on energy.
Optimists, nevertheless, are inclined to agree that Athens possesses distinctive instruments and alternatives to climate these strains. Ought to Washington cut back its involvement in European affairs, one Greek knowledgeable proposed policymakers pursue “outdoors the field” options for the advantage of Greece and its companions in Brussels. The nation’s massive service provider fleet, for instance, may function a conduit for American pure fuel producers in search of to ship to transatlantic clients. Maybe Greece’s Protection Ministry, along with authorities improvement companies, may discover better avenues of cooperation with america.
Whatever the means, the temper amongst Greek analysts is mostly constructive in the case of the foundations of the nation’s relationship with Washington. One insider who spoke with Greek diplomats pointed to a lot of essential elements aiding Athens, resembling the nice relationship supposedly shared by Mitsotakis, Trump, and their spouses. Lastly, there are the strongly pro-Greek sentiments present in Congress and the shock appointment of Marco Rubio, who was dubbed the “Republican Menendez” for the comparably pro-Greek attitudes he shares with the previous New Jersey senator, Robert Menendez.
Trump and Ankara’s Tempered Hopes
An analogous set of constructive expectations framed early Turkish reviews of the Trump administration’s return. Information that a number of potential American appointees have been talking optimistically about the way forward for Turkish-American relations acquired glowing protection amongst some Turkish retailers. As in Greece, insiders in Ankara level to the traditionally good relationship between Trump and Erdogan. Regardless of the American president’s “persona traits,” one columnist requested readers to not lose coronary heart. “It’s good,” he declared, “to have a president within the White Home with whom we have now direct relations.”
When it comes to precise coverage settlement, nevertheless, it’s laborious to see how Ankara and Washington will see eye to eye in the case of the state of affairs within the Levant. As in a lot of the world, information reporting of Israel’s twin marketing campaign in Gaza and Lebanon has enflamed Turkish public opinion and united the nation’s management in anger. Each Erdogan’s supporters and antagonists see the institution of a brand new Republican administration as a vital flip for the more serious for Palestinians. Regardless that dissenting American Muslims appeared to have helped place Trump within the White Home (a truth one columnist posed as the important thing cause why Harris misplaced), there’s a basic settlement that the brand new American president is extra prone to support, than hinder, ongoing navy Israeli operations.
None amongst Turkey’s most distinguished commentators have proposed any coverage meant to immediately counteract additional American assist for Israel’s warfare plans. That doesn’t imply, nevertheless, that observers consider Ankara will stay idle. For months, tv and print media have promoted the assumption that Israel threatens Turkey and its territory, a perception actively supported by Erdogan. Distinguished opinion-makers, in addition to opposition leaders, have forwarded the likelihood that Israel would make the most of Kurdish militants as proxies bent upon undermining Turkey from inside. Trump’s election, as one columnist not too long ago famous, has solely elevated the probability that Israel would play its euphemistic “Kurdish card.”
The answer, some have proposed, is to go on the offensive in Syria. “Turkey is set to clear the Syrian border of the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party],” one insider not too long ago declared. “It has been determined to regulate our borders to a depth of 30-40 kilometers. Each navy and diplomatic pillars of this are being fashioned. What the Mexican border is for Trump, so is the Syrian border for Erdogan.” Turkish religion in Trump’s willingness to associate with this plan, nevertheless, is mostly modest. With the introduced appointment of Mike Waltz as Trump’s nationwide safety advisor, analysts have underscored the congressman’s previous assist for American joint operations with Kurdish forces in Syria.
Far better confidence has been expressed within the risk that Trump’s election alerts an finish to American assist for the Ukrainian warfare effort. Each Erdogan, and his closest supporters in the press, have expressed hope that the president-elect’s want to discover a settlement to the Russian-Ukrainian battle makes Turkey’s participation important. What Ankara hopes to achieve from this participation, nevertheless, stays extra nebulous. Each Erdogan and media commentators have acknowledged that nearer cooperation with america on Ukraine may ship breakthroughs on points resembling Turkey’s eviction from the F-35 program. A United States extra centered on competitors with China, one columnist famous, may result in better American funding in Turkey and better bilateral commerce. Tv moderators have even mused that Washington could also be enticed into halting navy help to Greece on the backs of improved Turkish-American relations.
Regardless of these hopes, nevertheless, there’s a basic air of skepticism inside Turkish media. Way back to the day of Lyndon Johnson, one speak present panelist not too long ago declared, each American administration had both upset or sought to hurt Turkey. The true significance of Trump’s victory, many seem to agree, is that america seems visibly weaker.
Prematurely of election day, Turkey’s hottest information retailers forecasted the likelihood that America was heading towards civil warfare. Discuss of america descending into chaos continues regardless of Trump’s victory. A number of distinguished commentators have expressed extra particular hopes that the brand new administration would lead Washington to conduct a marketing campaign to destroy “the American deep state.” It was this deep state, which critics pose is alternatively made up of navy officers, Democrats, and Jews, that was the drive that prevented Trump from fulfilling his promise to Turkey to withdraw American troops from Syria. The advantages of a vanquished American deep state, nevertheless, seem to exceed the benefit it affords Ankara’s efforts in Syria. The civil unrest such a home marketing campaign would invoke is upheld as symbolic of America’s diminishing energy on the world stage. Trump’s ascendency, many agree, makes battle with China extra probably. In such an armed contest, commentators have a tendency to agree that Beijing is the most certainly to succeed. The sum results of such a state of affairs, as one columnist not too long ago argued, would represent the “loss of life announcement of the American Empire.”
Peace within the Aegean? Not Fairly But
It’s unclear how far these opinions mirror the views of Erdogan and his advisors. Thus far, Erdogan and his surrogates have voiced no apprehensions as to what they anticipate from a second Trump administration. Nonetheless, the unity of opinion that has emerged since election day provides robust indications as to the prevailing local weather in Ankara. And given what is thought concerning the authorities’s efforts to manufacture consent among the many nation’s thought leaders, it’s probably that the media’s prevailing views are throughout the bounds of what Erdogan deems acceptable. What this consensus seems to inform us is the diploma to which many Turks see situations getting worse of their area within the months forward.
But amid these misgivings, Turkey and Greece proceed to hold ahead their mutual dedication to bettering ties with each other. Current overseas ministry conferences between the 2 international locations resulted in heat expressions of mutual respect and understanding. The place talks result in sooner or later stays up the air. Though high-level discussions are deliberate for December and the brand new yr, disagreement over the complete scope of those conferences nonetheless looms. Talking amongst home audiences, each side don’t seem prepared to compromise on a lot. Greece, one spokesperson in Athens maintained, is invested in “the continuation of the dialogue.” “Dialogue,” he cautioned, “doesn’t imply retreat. Dialogue means assertion.” In each Ankara and Athens, critics have portrayed talks as pre-emptive steps in the direction of forfeiture of territory or sovereign rights.
These inside misgivings don’t but seem to have caught the eye of Trump’s nonetheless nascent administration. Ought to talks break down, each Greece and Turkey could also be left with a United States extra distracted by affairs in Asia. Much more probably is the prospect that neither state absolutely trusts Washington with offering mediation on points that separate the 2 capitals.
Ryan Gingeras is a professor within the Division of Nationwide Safety Affairs on the Naval Postgraduate Faculty and is an knowledgeable on Turkish, Balkan, and Center East historical past. He’s the writer of seven books, together with the forthcoming Mafia: A World Historical past (due out with Simon & Schuster in July 2025). His Sorrowful Shores: Violence, Ethnicity, and the Finish of the Ottoman Empire acquired short-list distinctions for the Rothschild E book Prize in Nationalism and Ethnic Research and the British-Kuwait Friendship Society E book Prize. The views expressed right here usually are not these of the Naval Postgraduate Faculty, the U.S. Navy, the Division of Protection, or any a part of the U.S. authorities.
Picture: The White Home by way of Wikimedia Commons.
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