In a press convention on Jan. 7, President-elect Donald Trump declined to rule out utilizing navy power to accumulate Greenland. Beforehand, he proclaimed that American “possession and management” of the semi-autonomous island, which is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, was “an absolute necessity.” The incoming president has additionally reposted a current article arguing the virtues of a U.S. takeover of the island and even prolonged a Christmas greeting to “the Individuals of Greenland, which is required by america for Nationwide Safety functions” a couple of days later. All this has reinvigorated hypothesis that President-elect Trump will as soon as once more strive to accumulate Greenland. The earlier Trump administration initially tried to purchase the island in 2019.
This hypothesis must be taken significantly. It faucets into an ongoing debate amongst former Trump officers who’ve targeted on designing extra life like plans for buying the island. Kaush Arha, Alexander B. Grey, and Tom Dans have supplied the most subtle proposal, suggesting that america ought to pursue a Compact of Free Affiliation with an impartial Greenland, like the present association between Washington and a handful of Pacific micro-nations resembling Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. Below this association, Greenland would achieve independence from Denmark however supply america entry to its territory in return for a safety assure and guarantees of financial and administrative assist, resembling massive annual direct financial transfers, judicial and diplomatic providers, and a coast guard. Free affiliation, the authors argue, can be useful for america as it will enable “the stationing of U.S. navy personnel,” give america “a vital supply of important minerals,” and counteract a Chinese language presence on the world’s largest island.
Nevertheless, pursuing free affiliation with Greenland can be a expensive mistake. As I’ve beforehand argued in these pages, america is already attaining its geostrategic aims in Greenland, whereas passing on the hefty invoice for working the island to Denmark. Whereas the proponents of free affiliation precisely establish the three most essential American targets in Greenland — sustaining navy entry to the island’s territory, gaining access to important minerals (resembling uncommon earth parts), and avoiding Chinese language affect over the island — free affiliation wouldn’t allow Washington to achieve these aims. Whereas it could be extra life like than making an attempt to purchase the island outright, free affiliation would yield no geostrategic advantages, whereas guaranteeing america would incur new prices. It could additionally alienate Denmark, a NATO ally, which opposes the transfer. In brief, pursuing free affiliation can be a nasty deal.
Free Affiliation is Costly
The Trump administration’s try to purchase Greenland in 2019 was a strategic cul-de-sac that led to nothing however pointless tensions with Denmark. When the mud had settled, america rapidly deserted this strategy and as an alternative started pursuing an economical engagement technique in Greenland.
The present U.S. engagement technique builds on current agreements and combines an efficient public diplomacy effort, anchored on the American consulate in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, with minor financial and political incentives to Greenland and Denmark in return for native acceptance of American geostrategic ambitions. Such incentives embody guaranteeing that set up assist providers on the American Pittufik House Base (previously Thule Air Base) are offered by a neighborhood firm at profitable charges, in addition to small assist packages for the minerals, tourism, and schooling sectors. Washington has not disclosed the whole sum of those efforts, however primarily based on publicly accessible information it’s estimated to price lower than $50 million per 12 months.
The U.S. technique additionally tacitly acknowledges that interference within the inside affairs of the Kingdom of Denmark, together with American probing into the query of Greenlandic independence, is the third rail of Danish–American relations. Most Greenlandic elites in addition to the broader public need independence from Denmark, and most Danish elites share the view that the island’s future is as much as its inhabitants. Whereas Denmark is unlikely to forestall Greenlandic independence if Nuuk needs to strike out by itself, Copenhagen views exterior meddling in what it considers its inside affairs to be out of bounds. As a part of its engagement technique, america has due to this fact stayed out of debates in regards to the future standing of Greenland and has strived to solely interact with Greenland in methods which might be seen as acceptable underneath the prevailing legal guidelines and norms governing Danish–Greenlandic relations.
Free affiliation, against this, would contain touching that third rail by actively supporting Greenlandic independence and providing Greenland a greater deal than the one Nuuk is at the moment getting from Denmark. It could result in pointless tensions between america and one in all its most stalwart allies in Europe.
Free affiliation wouldn’t solely trigger consternation in Copenhagen, it will additionally entail taking over a considerable financial burden. Polls present that Nuuk would due to this fact solely settle for independence and free affiliation with america if Washington at a minimal affords to switch Denmark as Greenland’s fundamental supply of administrative assist and direct financial transfers price a minimum of $700 million per 12 months. Free affiliation would thus enhance the worth of U.S. involvement in Greenland by greater than 1,000 p.c.
The USA Is Already Getting What It Needs
On the similar time, free affiliation wouldn’t assist america obtain any of its three geostrategic targets.
First, america has had a navy presence in Greenland for a number of a long time. The island performs an essential position in U.S. deterrence of each international and regional threats. The radar and satellite tv for pc installations at Pittufik House Base, the Protection Division’s northernmost set up, assist missile warning, missile protection, and house surveillance missions. Whereas Greenland at the moment solely performs a restricted position in supporting maritime and airspace capacities and operations within the wider Arctic and North Atlantic areas — resembling anti-submarine operations in opposition to Russian forces — the island’s strategic location may warrant extra U.S. navy consideration sooner or later. If america needs extra entry than current agreements enable, Greenland and Denmark have proven themselves to be amenable to Washington’s preferences, particularly if given extra political or financial incentives, the price of which might be a tiny fraction of present Danish assist to Greenland. It’s due to this fact tough to think about that america would encounter vital pushback to increasing its present navy presence ought to the necessity come up.
Second, American corporations don’t at the moment require free affiliation to mine the important minerals — together with uncommon earth parts — present in Greenland. In 2019, america and Greenland agreed to strengthen current cooperation within the growth of mineral sources. Greenland’s 2024 international coverage technique emphasised a robust curiosity in attracting direct funding and commerce from like-minded companions resembling america, significantly particular person states resembling Alaska and people within the northeastern United States. At current, the Greenlandic mining trade largely stays dormant as a result of plenty of components, together with low world market costs, excessive prices related to mining underneath the cruel Arctic circumstances, cumbersome laws, and occasional native resistance by civil society teams. Free affiliation wouldn’t treatment these challenges.
Third, america goals to forestall a major Chinese language presence on the island and keep Greenland’s place throughout the Euro-Atlantic safety structure. This has already been achieved by means of the present set-up, and free affiliation would add no tangible advantages. Whereas Russian entities have proven little curiosity in gaining a foothold in Greenland by means of investments or different varieties of cooperation, Chinese language firms and analysis establishments made a number of unsuccessful makes an attempt to determine a presence between 2014 and 2018. The shortage of success was largely as a result of Danish and American efforts to disclaim China. Beijing has since moved on from its Arctic ambitions in Greenland — there have been no main makes an attempt by Chinese language actors to garner affect on the island since 2019.
Keep on with the Present Engagement Technique
The USA would achieve nothing however further bills and pointless tensions with one in all its shut allies by pursuing free affiliation with Greenland. Actually, free affiliation would spoil what’s a near-perfect association for america, as Washington is already attaining its geostrategic aims, whereas letting Denmark foot the invoice for working Greenlandic society. Abandoning a budget and profitable engagement technique can be an unforced error that may solely profit America’s adversaries.
As a substitute, america ought to keep its present efforts and attempt to search out low cost methods to additional strengthen its ties with Greenland. The USA may put money into further assist packages geared toward cooperation with Greenland in areas resembling tourism and schooling. To make it simpler for U.S. mining firms looking for to work in Greenland, Washington may incentivize new ventures by creating favorable mortgage schemes or a particular funding fund for Arctic mining. This might not solely safe essential mineral provides, however it will additionally weave the Greenlandic and U.S. economies nearer collectively. Lastly, Greenland has prompt the institution of an Arctic North American political discussion board. Washington ought to assist this initiative. Such a discussion board could possibly be a spot the place the Arctic international locations and native governments in North America (resembling Alaska and Nunavut), in addition to organizations representing native and indigenous communities, may strengthen dialogue and cooperation.
There may be nonetheless low cost low-hanging fruit that may be picked to strengthen cooperation between Greenland, america, and Denmark — and thus safe American pursuits in Greenland. Washington ought to stick to those cost-effective efforts quite than pursuing sophisticated schemes like free affiliation that can solely make america worse off.
Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen is an affiliate professor on the Royal Danish Defence Faculty, the place he’s the top of analysis on the Middle for Arctic Safety Research. The views offered listed here are the creator’s personal and don’t characterize the views of the Royal Danish Defence Faculty or some other Danish authorities entity.
Picture: Oliver Schauf through Wikimedia Commons
