New York Instances: “Whereas election polling has been round for greater than a century, election forecasts have come to the forefront solely prior to now decade and a half. And whereas polls are supposed to supply a snapshot in time, taking the heart beat of how People are feeling a few race, forecasts go a step additional, analyzing the polling and different information to make a prediction about who’s most probably to win, and the way possible.”
“However this yr, with the polls already displaying a razor-thin presidential race, the forecasts usually indicated that the race was tied nationally or in swing states, or they gave one candidate or the opposite solely a slight edge.”
“These outcomes elevate the query: What’s the worth of those election forecasts? Proponents say they assist synthesize the obtainable data and that extra information is best than much less. In addition they argue that the forecasts this yr carried out properly, typically — capturing the uncertainty of an in depth race, whereas holding out for the chance that Donald Trump may sweep the swing states, as he did.”
“However critics say forecasts add extra noise than sign — and will even be doing hurt.”
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