Robert Pape: “In a matter of a day, the system snapped again to escalation. This isn’t a narrative about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing. It’s a story about zero-sum battle, the place the core points can’t be divided, traded, or deferred with out forcing one aspect to simply accept a strategic loss—a direct contest over relative energy.”
“On the middle of the conflict is a reality that can’t be negotiated away: Iran both retains a nuclear functionality on the brink of weapons, or it doesn’t. There isn’t any secure center floor that satisfies each side. For the US, permitting Iran to maintain that functionality would basically alter the regional steadiness of energy, weaken deterrence, and undermine the credibility of long-standing nonproliferation commitments. For Iran, relinquishing that functionality—particularly below coercion—would expose the regime to future strain and potential regime-threatening vulnerability.”
“This isn’t a bargaining downside the place incremental concessions can produce equilibrium. It’s a zero-sum situation, the place the end result instantly determines the safety of each side—as a result of it determines their relative energy.”
